tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90937915207462406732024-03-29T08:10:59.974+08:00Neo Zion 513经济金融人文群博客:https://cinacn.blogspot.com/Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger15946125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-21669492455807452452024-03-29T08:10:00.001+08:002024-03-29T08:10:01.469+08:00Ray Dalio解释“百年未见之大变局”(100-Year Storm)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDEB6T2rsDtFNFWC8jeN57FX3x54_14KmctkKYAVtEb4s90lj8k9_qKiwHQKwP8OM48LO9ZdWk6dDejKcMpQSAIJQs7bOmSvwukAn5vcxPRjBJoUFoINnzlSB8NFZqG2LkLLIA1TrmSwhzP-8ACGu79j4yiOyM2MAYD2PZZBJEKHpwY24lMtBf4hGK1zOT/s1556/gnPzZo6OtQmraed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="940" data-original-width="1556" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDEB6T2rsDtFNFWC8jeN57FX3x54_14KmctkKYAVtEb4s90lj8k9_qKiwHQKwP8OM48LO9ZdWk6dDejKcMpQSAIJQs7bOmSvwukAn5vcxPRjBJoUFoINnzlSB8NFZqG2LkLLIA1TrmSwhzP-8ACGu79j4yiOyM2MAYD2PZZBJEKHpwY24lMtBf4hGK1zOT/s320/gnPzZo6OtQmraed.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Ray Dalio 在Linkedin发长文,解释“百年未见之大变局”(100-Year Storm)。<br /><br />总书记上台后至今11年,中国从一个资本主义的“文艺复兴”变成了今天这个样子<br /><br />不过他认为,<b>这和中国处于大周期末端有关。<br /><br />该周期有三个主要特色:</b><br /><br /><b>1)之前的资本主义浪潮在中国创造了大量债务和贫富差距,正如资本主义在其他所有国家创造过的那样<br /><br />2)极大的自然灾害,比如疫情。而中国政府对待疫情的错误和极端的共产主义方式,让疫情的危害放大了一百倍不止<br /><br />3)国际势力冲突,特别是自特朗普上台之后开始的中美冲突。<br />这三件事情媾和在一起,变成了“百年未见之大变局”</b><p></p><p><br /></p><p>==原文==</p><p>In China: The 100-Year Storm on the Horizon and How the Five Big Forces Are Playing Out</p><p>by <i>Ray Dalio</i><br /></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember50">
A few years ago, President Xi Jinping started warning that a
100-year big storm is coming. As is typical of the early days of a
hurricane, one can now feel it. The circumstances and the mood in China
have indisputably changed to become more threatening. These changes are
mostly due to big cycle forces.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember51">
The most joyous and productive environments are ones that have
freedom, civility, and creativity, and ones in which people can make
their dreams into great realities with prosperity that is shared by most
people. This happened in China from around 1980 until around five years
ago. It is quite typical for such booms to produce debt bubbles and big
wealth gaps that lead the booms to turn into bubbles that turn into
busts. That happened in China at the same time as the global great power
conflict intensified, so China is now in the post-bubble and great
power conflict part of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big
forces that have changed the mood and the environment. In this piece, I
will first describe in brief how the Big Cycle has transpired over
roughly the past century, and then I will explain the current picture of
what is happening today, with a focus on the challenges that China is
facing. This history and these dynamics are complex and important to
world history and the global order—everything I write here is how I see
it based on my own experience, relationships, and research.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember52">
<strong>How the Big Cycle in China Transpired to Create the Conditions from the Beginning of the PRC Through the Current Conditions<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></strong>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember53">
</p><ul><li><strong>In the 1930-45 period, there was the last 100-year big storm</strong>,
which was driven classically by the confluence of 1) a debt bust that
triggered a global depression, 2) a civil war in China between the rich
rightist-capitalists and the poor leftist-communists (which ended in
1949 when the Communists won), 3) an international great power
conflict-war that ended in 1945 when the United States (and, to a much
lesser extent, Great Britain and Russia) won, creating the American-led
world order, 4) many disruptive acts of nature, and 5) big technological
changes. That period ended in the classic ways they end, with a debt
and economic collapse, one side winning over the other in the great
international war and the new world order beginning (in 1945), and one
side winning over the other in the civil war and the new domestic order
beginning (in 1949).</li><li><strong>From 1949 (the year the new
domestic order was created via the PRC being formed) until 1978 (the
year Deng Xiaoping came to power), there was a typical post-war
consolidation period led by Mao</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>in
the way he wanted via a domestic economic policy that was communist, a
domestic political policy that was oppressive (dictatorial and designed
to purge the opposition), and a foreign policy that was isolationist.
That and big disruptive acts of nature led to many big challenges and
big bad periods and few economic and technological advances. Mao and
that era died in 1976.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></li><li><strong>When
Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978, he reduced the one-man control and
repressions, increased collective leadership, replaced hardcore
autocratic communism with more free markets and increasingly larger
doses of capitalism, and opened China up to foreigners to learn and earn
from them.</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>It was like
sprinkling water on fertile ground that led to a great blossoming. From
1978 until Xi came to power, there was a classic capitalist rejuvenation
that led to a boom in which the economy, living standards, and debt all
grew greatly. At the same time, China was not perceived by other
countries to be a threat to the leading great power (the United States)
and its world order. As a result, China had a joyous and productive
environment in which there was a relatively large increase in freedom,
civility, and creativity, and in which people could make their dreams
into great realities and most people benefited, though the rich
benefited more than the poor. As is typically the case, these
policies also produced greater wealth gaps and greater amounts of
corruption. That began to end when Xi came to power, not because he came
to power but because of where China was in its Big Cycle and how the
new leadership approached it.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></li><li><strong>When
President Xi came to power in 2012, a roughly 11-year transition began
that brought China from what it was like in 2012 to what it is like
today.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></strong>I was lucky to see
it up close. At the start of his presidency, Xi and the leadership’s
main goals were to reform the economy and eliminate corruption. For most
of Xi’s first five-year term there was a) still an openness to outside
thinking, b) a strong desire to further reform the economy by making it
more market-driven and building and reforming the capital markets, and
c) strong actions taken to eliminate corruption. The senior leaders
chosen were the ones who were inclined to do those things. Of course,
how to do these things was debated and some people benefited from the
changes while others were hurt by them, so in Xi’s first term there was a
movement to consolidate power via a move to “core leadership.” This
became most clear in the leadership changes that accompanied the shift
from the first to the second five-year term under Xi. In 2015, Xi put
out his bold 2025 plan, which was viewed as aspirational by the Chinese
and threatening by Americans. China could no longer “hide power.”
Americans viewed the Chinese as a threat. By the time Donald Trump came
to power in 2017 and Xi began his second term in 2017, the great power
conflict had begun. In 2019-20, COVID-19 emerged. At the same time, the
debt bubble and the wealth gaps had grown—so the classic convergence of
forces led to the formation of the “100-year big storm.” In 2021, about
halfway through Xi’s second term, China’s domestic debt bubble burst and
the international great power conflict intensified. At the beginning of
Xi’s third term in October 2022, China’s leadership changed from
reform-minded globalists to loyal communist nationalists, and purges and
crackdowns ensued, which brings us up until now. I will soon describe
what things now look like, but before I do, I want to drive home the
point about how the Big Cycle is playing a big role in driving what has
happened.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></li></ul>
<p></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember54">
<strong>The Hand Xi Was Dealt and How He Is Choosing to Play That Hand</strong>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember55">
A Chinese leader, historian, and friend of mine told me several
years ago that the conditions of the times create the type of leader
that emerges because the evolutionary process pulls out the leader who
suits the environment. In other words, how the times are transpiring
determines the leader even more than the leader determines how the times
are going. He gave me the book<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><em>The Role of the Individual in History<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></em>by
the Russian political philosopher Georgi Plekhanov, which you might
find interesting. When Henry Kissinger was writing his book on
leadership and we talked about what makes a great leader, he made the
same point—that what made a great leader at the time depended on what
was needed at the time. For example, Konrad Adenauer (Germany’s
chancellor immediately after World War II) was a great leader for a
country that was defeated after a war because he knew how to be both
deferential and pushy enough to deal with both 1) the dominant powers
that Germany had just came out of a horrendous war with and 2) a
domestic population that was defeated and destroyed in most ways.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><strong>My
point is that what is happening now and Xi’s leadership must be looked
at within the context of the Big Cycle. In other words, it is important
to distinguish between the hand that Xi was dealt and how he has been
choosing to play it. It is also important to understand what is
happening now and how Xi is playing his hand without judging these
things, because judging them can stand in the way of understanding them.</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>My
goal is only to understand what’s happening and what’s likely to
happen, and I don’t want to let judgments stand in the way of doing
that.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember56">
<strong>As I see it, the template to keep in mind</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>is
that capitalism (with or without “Chinese characteristics”) produces
credit that creates spending power, which when used well unleashes
creativity and prosperity, which produces the upward wave in the cycle.
But it also inevitably creates a lot of debt and wealth gaps, and when
the debt becomes too large to pay off and there are big wealth gaps,
that causes the cycle to reverse. When there is a lot of debt and big
wealth gaps at the same time as there are great domestic and
international power conflicts and/or great disruptive changes in nature
(like droughts, floods, and pandemics, which China is especially prone
to) and great changes in technology, there is an increased likelihood of
a “100-year big storm.” That is the current environment in China.
Destiny put Xi in the position he is in, and how he plays his hand will
reflect where he is coming from, motivating him to do what he does,
which will have a big influence on what happens.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember57">
<strong>History shows that in all countries through all times
during these very difficult 100-year-storm-like periods, leaders go to
much more autocratic policies because the alternative becomes great
internal conflict and disorder, and typically there are forced changes
of leadership that those in power fight against.</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>This
is especially true in the Chinese culture. Losing the “mandate of
heaven” is something everyone is aware of. A Chinese scholar told me
that 38% of China’s emperors died of unnatural causes while in power.
There are many dynasties that went through such big storm periods and
different philosophies that emperors used to guide them. “Legalism” is
the belief that people are motivated by self-interest, especially during
difficult times, so they must be required to strictly follow the
emperor and his rules, especially big storm periods.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><strong>The legalist approach with Marxist/Maoist characteristics appears to be the approach Xi has chosen.</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>To
be clear, I don’t think that what it is exactly is clear to either
non-policy makers or policy makers. They appear to be figuring out the
“dialectic.” For example, I know that entrepreneurship and open markets
remain much more open than my characterization of a legalist approach
with Marxist/Maoist characteristics would seem to imply.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember58">
While people can debate the merits of Xi and the Chinese
government creating a fearful and strict-control environment to get
people to behave the way the government wants them to behave, just as
people can debate the merits of the American government’s more
democratic and disorderly approach, it is more important to see what’s
happening as objectively as possible than to be quick to pass judgments
on it. Here is the current picture of what is happening as I see it.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember59">
<strong>The Current Picture of What Is Happening in China</strong>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember60">
I will describe this in terms of what I see as the five big forces
that drive the changing world order and tend to evolve in big cycles.
They are: how well the economic system works, how well the internal
order works within countries, and how well the world order works between
countries, along with acts of nature and technology.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember61">
</p><ol><li><strong>There are big debt and economic problems that are depressing economic activity, prices, and psychology.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></strong>Domestically,
it is a very difficult time for China financially because many people
are suffering the negative wealth effects of falling a) real estate
prices, b) equity and other asset prices, c) employment, and d) employee
compensation. Also, there are debt and financial problems that exist in
many companies and many local governments that are drags, which, if not
properly dealt with, will have bad consequences for a long time. These
things have contributed to the mood having become more dour.</li></ol>
<p></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember62">
How should these problems be dealt with? To me, as a macroeconomic
thinker who approaches such debt and economic problems more like a
doctor than an ideologue, the leadership needs to have a debt
restructuring, which it should do via engineering a beautiful
deleveraging (see my book<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><em>Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises</em>, which I’m<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><a class="app-aware-link " data-test-app-aware-link="" href="http://www.economicprinciples.com/" target="_self">giving you here for free</a><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>if
you’re interested in delving into what that looks like) or it will have
a “lost decade” like Japan’s. While many people think policy makers
should ease monetary policy to create more credit, I think they
correctly view creating more credit and debt like giving an alcoholic a
drink to help ease withdrawal problems. I believe that they should
engineer both 1) a deleveraging (which is deflationary, depressing, and
will reduce the debt burden) and 2) an easing of monetary policy (which
is inflationary, stimulative, and will ease the debt burden) so that the
deflationary ways of reducing debt and the inflationary ways of doing
it balance. This is what I mean by a “beautiful deleveraging.” In my
opinion, this should have been done two years ago and if not done will
probably lead to a lost decade. I think some of the economic leaders,
especially those who did this under Zhu Rongji, understand how to do
this, but it is very difficult and politically dangerous to do because
it engineers big changes in wealth, which is politically challenging,
especially during a difficult time because people squawk. In my opinion,
if the leadership doesn’t execute a beautiful deleveraging, China will
have a Japanese-style lost decade with Marxist characteristics.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember63">
The aging population issue is a heavy weight for those who are
old, for their children, and for the government’s finances and social
issues. The average age of retirement is 53 and the average age of death
is 84, so people without incomes have to be taken care of for 31 years
on average. This is made more difficult because the previous one-child
policy means that one person has to take care of two parents. This has
been a depressant in the mood and the financial situation. While the
retirement age should be raised and a social support system including
old-age care should be improved, neither is happening at an adequate
pace. That is mostly because people don’t want their retirement ages to
rise so doing that is politically untenable and because the government
bureaucracy is moving very slowly, especially now that most government
officials are reluctant to take bold actions because those can be
politically disruptive (as they were in other countries, most notably
France) and people squawk, so it takes courage. Also, with the workforce
declining and old people getting ill and passing away, this is
burdensome and depressing. Once again, this is likely to remain a burden
unless the government deals with it in a more forceful way.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember64">
2.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><strong>The internal wealth gap and the resulting conflict over wealth and values are intensifying, which is fear-inducing.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></strong>The
internal wealth gap has led to the government’s push for common
prosperity and government-directed, seemingly arbitrary rather than
rule-based actions. These moves appear to some people to be
anti-capitalist, while to others they are simply the government’s
messages to people to stay out of politics and do what the leadership
wants them to do to help society. In any case, it’s fear-inducing and
oppressive, especially for the capitalist elites. On a recent trip to
China, my Chinese friends reminded me that throughout Chinese history,
it’s typically been the case that you can’t be rich and be a government
official. The merchant-capitalist who sought financial gain was
traditionally assumed to be dangerously greedy and easily corruptible,
and not allowed to be in government. It wasn’t until 2002 that these
merchant-capitalists were allowed to become Communist Party members.
That was during the reformist period. Now it is no longer as “glorious
to be rich.” As is increasingly the case around the world but more so in
China, there is a greater inclination to think that the rich are
selfish and corrupt. Purging and rooting out corruption is also going on
in most areas, perhaps most notably in the military. In other words,
it’s a time of big policing and strict enforcing of what should be done
and how people should behave that has become threatening to some.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember65">
With the pendulum now swinging in the more legalistic, autocratic,
communist direction, naturally people are asking how far it will go,
which leads people to probably exaggerate the possibilities. My study of
Chinese history (and my studies of similar histories in analogous
periods) has put in my mind, which are also in some others’ minds, the
memories of anti-rightist-capitalist campaigns that led to the
persecutions of such people, the confiscations of wealth, the shutting
down of stock markets, the enforcing of strict foreign exchange
controls, the restrictions against leaving China, and the questions
about whether that is where China is headed. People remember the civil
war and the changes after 1949. The elites who are experiencing these
pains to a greater degree are more concerned. It appears that the
“elites” are most concerned and least supportive of Xi, while many who
feel Xi is trying to take care of them from being exploited by the
elites are strongly supportive of him. It appears that Xi and the
leadership think that most of those people who are discontented are
spoiled and unappreciative of how much better off they are than they
were not long ago and that they need to toughen up, get disciplined, and
get in line with the program to help others. This has contributed to
the mood becoming more dour and pessimistic.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember66">
No one knows how far the pendulum will swing back toward the more
Maoist/Marxist ways of doing things. The absence of clear communication
from the leadership about the motivations behind their actions and where
they are headed is leading to greater amounts of imaginary speculation
than there would be if there were clearer communication. The impediment
is that communicating more directly is not the Chinese leadership’s
traditional way of doing things, which, as China goes back toward the
more traditional ways of doing things, is understandable. China’s new
premier Li Qiang’s decision to discontinue press conferences for the
first time in 30 years is consistent with the move to lesser clarity
rather than greater clarity at this time of greater risk.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember67">
3.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><strong>The great-power conflict between China and the US is having a big negative effect.</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>It
is causing foreign investors and businesses and domestic investors and
businesses to want to diversify or leave China and to fear being
discriminated against globally for being friendly to China. In trade and
capital flows, a cat-and-mouse game has developed that has led
companies and people to move to neutral countries and to try to appear
to be non-Chinese or not Chinese sympathizers, so much so that the
Chinese are having problems getting other countries and companies to
accept them being there and/or investing in them. For example, Chinese
businesses setting up Mexican companies and exporting to the US to get
around tariffs on Chinese goods is leading the US to explore moving to
look through the entities to identify the beneficial owners to catch and
punish these entities. The TikTok identity pursuit game is the most
attention-getting example. Even in the industries and world markets that
China has become very competitive in—most obviously electric vehicles,
batteries, green energy (solar and wind) products, chips, artificial
intelligence, quantum computing, space, etc.—there are geopolitical
conflicts that blend with economic conflicts, so they are increasingly
run by governments. The not-too-long-ago old days of free and open
markets and the idea that government interference in them is bad are
gone for the foreseeable future. This will affect China because it
has excess capacity and will be accused of dumping, leading to big
tariff increases as protectionism and nationalism come back into fashion
as they did in the 1930s. The Chinese economic model is based on
gaining an increasing share of world manufacturing output, which has a
good chance of not happening because countries that in the past have
imported Chinese goods are more likely to prevent them with rising
tariffs.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember68">
In addition to economic clashes with the West, there are cultural
clashes. They were described to me by a Chinese leader as mutual
cultural ignorance with evolutionary change. He explained that 1) the
Anglo-European culture extended by Great Britain passing dominance to
the US is having problems accepting the rise of China and its
Chinese-Asian culture, 2) there are failures of the two sides to
understand and accept the different approaches, and 3) Western culture
is more zero-sum than win-win and more inclined to slip into lose-lose
wars. I agree with his assessment and find it tragic. It is certainly
the case that the Chinese fight wars differently. Think about the “art
of war”—fighting to win by focusing on the “pressure points” that can
weaken or hurt the other side without even being seen. For example, if
one were conjecturing how the Chinese might play the existing
geopolitical situation if the conflict rises, because the US is
overextended in two wars, the Chinese might think about where there
could be a third front—like a war in Asia, something like a conflict
with the Philippines or North Korea, that would put the two sides in the
US election in the awkward position of having to step into a third
conflict (which would be unpopular in the US) or not appear strong
enough. Almost all leaders on both sides believe that the other side is
working to destroy the other and are working to be able to destroy the
other. They are in an intensifying prisoner’s dilemma. To be clear, I
don’t believe that either side wants to provoke the other side, and I do
believe that greater understanding of and respect for the other’s
culture are required. But more than that, each should ask the other,
“What are your greatest existential fears?” and work with the other side
to figure out what can be done to alleviate them. Without that, the
odds of some sort of a devastating war within the next 10 years are high
and people are positioning themselves with that possibility in mind,
which itself is very damaging.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember69">
4.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><strong>Climate and climate-related issues are big, threatening, and top-of-mind.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span></strong>They
extend from having droughts, floods, and pandemics to not having enough
clean water. They will probably cost a lot and hurt a lot.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember70">
5.<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><strong>While technology
development has always been a critical defining force and while it is
well known that whoever wins the technology war wins the economic,
geopolitical, and military wars, this has never been truer than now, and
China and the US are the leaders and big adversaries.</strong><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>Throughout
the history of war, the desired path has been to secretively build the
technology that is strong enough so that showing it to the opposition
will make the opposition become submissive. Watch the movie<span class="white-space-pre"> </span><em>Oppenheimer</em><span class="white-space-pre"> </span>for
a refresher. That is certainly going on. There are many technologies
that both China and the US are putting huge amounts of talent and
resources into using their different approaches, one more top-down,
government-directed and one more bottom-up, corporate/capitalist—some of
which we know about (e.g., chips, AI, quantum computing, outer space,
cyber, batteries, clean energy, electric vehicles, robotics, etc.), some
of which China is in the lead on, and some of which the US is in the
lead on, and none of which we can anticipate exactly how it will
transpire in the future. I won’t digress into looking into these because
it would take too long, and now is the time to step back up to look at
the big picture.
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember71">
For the previously described reasons it is understandable why
President Xi believes that there is a 100-year storm on the horizon.
That assessment seems right to me. At the same time, I am not certain of
anything other than that I am trying to be as objective and helpful as
possible in bringing about understanding. China is an enigma that I am
trying to make less enigmatic. I have been very lucky to see up close
for nearly 40 years what has happened in China, the United States, and
China-US relations, all of which I care about deeply. And I have found
it all intensely interesting and important to watch. It seems that we
all have been affected by the supposed Chinese curse “May you live in
interesting times.”
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember72">
Since I published this, a number of people have asked what I think
about investing in China. I find high quality Chinese assets very
attractively priced and I have done very well investing there. I also
have great affection and respect for the Chinese people and culture. For
these reasons, I remain committed to my meaningful work, meaningful
relationships, and investing there--and to trying to improve mutual
understanding through my radical truthfulness.
</p>
<hr />
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember73">
Disclosures
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember74">
<em>Bridgewater Daily Observations is prepared by and is the
property of Bridgewater Associates, LP and is circulated for
informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration
given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances of any
of the recipients. Additionally, Bridgewater's actual investment
positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed
herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment
restrictions, portfolio rebalancing and transactions costs, among
others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax
advisors, before making any investment decision. This material is for
informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell
or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other
instruments mentioned. Any such offering will be made pursuant to a
definitive offering memorandum. This material does not constitute a
personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors which
are necessary considerations before making any investment decision.
Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this
research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where
appropriate, seek professional advice, including legal, tax, accounting,
investment, or other advice.</em>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember75">
<em>The information provided herein is not intended to provide a
sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision and investment
decisions should not be based on simulated, hypothetical, or
illustrative information that have inherent limitations. Unlike an
actual performance record simulated or hypothetical results do not
represent actual trading or the actual costs of management and may have
under or overcompensated for the impact of certain market risk factors.
Bridgewater makes no representation that any account will or is likely
to achieve returns similar to those shown. The price and value of the
investments referred to in this research and the income therefrom may
fluctuate. Every investment involves risk and in volatile or uncertain
market conditions, significant variations in the value or return on that
investment may occur. Investments in hedge funds are complex,
speculative and carry a high degree of risk, including the risk of a
complete loss of an investor’s entire investment. Past performance is
not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed,
and a complete loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions,
including those involving leverage, futures, options, and other
derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all
investors. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have material adverse
effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain
investments.</em>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember76">
<em>Bridgewater research utilizes data and information from
public, private, and internal sources, including data from actual
Bridgewater trades. Sources include BCA, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bond
Radar, Candeal, CBRE, Inc., CEIC Data Company Ltd., China Bull Research,
Clarus Financial Technology, CLS Processing Solutions, Conference Board
of Canada, Consensus Economics Inc., DataYes Inc, Dealogic, DTCC Data
Repository, Ecoanalitica, Empirical Research Partners, Entis (Axioma
Qontigo Simcorp), EPFR Global, Eurasia Group, Evercore ISI, FactSet
Research Systems, Fastmarkets Global Limited, the Financial Times
Limited, FINRA, GaveKal Research Ltd., Global Financial Data,
GlobalSource Partners, Harvard Business Review, Haver Analytics, Inc.,
Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), the Investment Funds Institute
of Canada, ICE Derived Data (UK), Investment Company Institute,
International Institute of Finance, JP Morgan, JSTA Advisors, M Science
LLC, MarketAxess, Medley Global Advisors (Energy Aspects Corp), Metals
Focus Ltd, Moody’s ESG Solutions, MSCI, Inc., National Bureau of
Economic Research, Neudata, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development, Pensions & Investments Research Center, Refinitiv,
Rhodium Group, RP Data, Rubinson Research, Rystad Energy, S&P Global
Market Intelligence, Scientific Infra/EDHEC, Sentix GmbH, Shanghai
Metals Market, Shanghai Wind Information, Smart Insider Ltd.,
Sustainalytics, Swaps Monitor, Tradeweb, United Nations, US Department
of Commerce, Verisk Maplecroft, Visible Alpha, Wells Bay, Wind Financial
Information LLC, Wood Mackenzie Limited, World Bureau of Metal
Statistics, World Economic Forum, and YieldBook. While we consider
information from external sources to be reliable, we do not assume
responsibility for its accuracy.</em>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember77">
<em>This information is not directed at or intended for
distribution to or use by any person or entity located in any
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability, or use
would be contrary to applicable law or regulation, or which would
subject Bridgewater to any registration or licensing requirements within
such jurisdiction. No part of this material may be (i) copied,
photocopied, or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Bridgewater®
Associates, LP.</em>
</p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember78">
<em>The views expressed herein are solely those of Bridgewater as
of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Bridgewater may have a significant financial interest in one or more of
the positions and/or securities or derivatives discussed. Those
responsible for preparing this report receive compensation based upon
various factors, including, among other things, the quality of their
work and firm revenues.</em>
</p>
</div><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-48861629596469974572024-03-28T19:18:00.006+08:002024-03-28T19:18:00.179+08:00四川三农民假冒纪委“提审”正处级干部,后者乖乖交代了自己的贪污罪行<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4hsb16"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4hsb16","div":"rumble_v4hsb16"});</script><br /><p></p><p>@zhanglifan<br />四川有三名初中文化的农民孙智元、颜勤林和卢小志,合伙冒充纪委干部,將重庆的一名正处级干部直接、公开地从其办公室里、在众目暌暌之下带走“双规”。经过连夜“审讯”,张局长全盘交待了自己的贪污罪行,仅其办公室内的三张银行卡,里面合计就有80多万赃款⋯<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-42262757443885192712024-03-28T18:51:00.003+08:002024-03-28T18:51:00.252+08:00中国女俄粉唱歌表达对普京的崇拜<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4hkppi"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4hkppi","div":"rumble_v4hkppi"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-10910411398288439162024-03-28T12:02:00.001+08:002024-03-28T12:02:00.138+08:00用卓别林的方式打开周星驰的《唐伯虎点秋香》<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4hj9cc"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4hj9cc","div":"rumble_v4hj9cc"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-79975829495247712522024-03-28T10:46:00.002+08:002024-03-28T10:46:00.140+08:00清华大学教授甘阳:大学越来越像工厂<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4hbigz"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4hbigz","div":"rumble_v4hbigz"});</script><br /><p></p><p>#清华大学教授称大学越来越像工厂#清华大学教授甘阳在接受@三联生活周刊采访时表示:“大学越来越像工厂,院系像生产车间。”<br /><br />用8个字概括现在的学生,他认为,特别是清华北大的精英学生,可以说是疲惫、焦虑、未老先衰。<br /><br />“大学的评价系统和内卷是连在一起的,迫使学生疲于奔命。”<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-19606116801603427842024-03-27T19:13:00.000+08:002024-03-27T19:13:00.137+08:00中外历史上的改革困境与成败周期<p>文/章立凡<br /><br />改革及改革家的困境是什么?改革的成败在历史时空中有无周期性的轨迹?这是两个值得探讨的问题。在中外历史上,也确有不少著名的先例可供参考。<br /><br />梭伦与商鞅:困境相似结局不同<br /><br />公元前594年,梭伦出任雅典城邦的第一任执政官,推行了大刀阔斧的改革。他废除债务奴隶制和残酷法律,按财产分级赋予政治权力,建立三权分立架构,奠定了雅典民主政治乃至西方民主政治的基础。<br />梭伦改革在贵族与平民的夹缝中进行,既帮助了穷人又恪守中道。他曾以诗明志:“我拿着一只大盾,保护两方,不让任何一方不公正地占据优势。”<br />亚里士多德曾在《雅典政制》一书中,谈及梭伦在改革中的困境:<br />当梭伦完成上面所述的宪法时,平民时常来找他,并且为着他的法律而使他感到烦恼,批评这些,问问那些;他既不愿变更法律条文,又不愿居留而受谤,所以旅行埃及,以经商和游览该地为目的,声明十年之内,将不回来,因为他认为他没有义务留下来解释法律,大家应该遵从他所写的法律条款。而且这时他的境遇也很不顺适。……因为平民期待他制订法律,重新分配一切财产,而贵族则希望他或恢复以前的制度,或只是略加变更;但梭伦双方都不讨好,尽管他如果随意袒护一方,就有成为僭主的可能,他却宁愿遭受双方仇视,而采取曾是最优良的立法,拯救国家。<br />公元前572年,梭伦在执政二十二年后放弃权力,前往埃及、塞浦路斯、小亚细亚等地漫游。他出走之后,雅典社会矛盾进一步激化。公元前560年,庇西特拉图以武力成为雅典僭主。但这位僭主继续推进改革,原有的改革成果得以保全。梭伦游历十年后返回雅典,退隐在家从事研究和著述,死后安葬在故乡萨拉米斯岛。<br />相形之下,东方的改革家商鞅,就不像梭伦那样知进知退。商鞅在秦孝公支持下,于公元前356年、350年先后两次实行变法。“平权衡,正度量,调轻重,决裂阡陌,教民耕战,是以兵动而地广,兵休而国富。故秦无敌于天下,立威诸侯。(《战国策》)”新法“行之十年,秦民大说(悦),道不拾遗,山无盗贼,家给人足。民勇于公战,怯于私斗,乡邑大治。(《史记•商君列传》)”而利益在变法中被侵犯的贵族们,则强烈反对他。<br />据司马迁记载,智者赵良曾当面批评商鞅的为政风格:“相秦不以百姓为事,而大筑冀阙,非所以为功也。刑黥太子之师傅,残伤民以骏刑,是积怨蓄祸也。”他指出商鞅 “危若朝露”,“秦王一旦捐宾客而不立朝,秦国之所以收君者,岂其微哉?亡可翘足而待”,劝其急流勇退。商鞅没有接受赵良的劝告。<br />性格决定命运。公元前338年孝公薨逝,秦惠文王继位,商鞅失势出逃。他在位时法令森严,逃亡中投宿旅店遭拒,被捕车裂而死,后人讥为“作法自毙”。司马迁认定他“天资刻薄”,“刑公子虔,欺魏将卯,不师赵良之言,亦足发明商君之少恩矣”。<br />抛开道德评价,两位改革家的共同之处,是在顶层与底层的夹缝中奋斗,而其新法在他们下台后均得以继续实行。不同在于个人结局:一位执政二十二年全身而退,换来新法十年不变之约;一位行新法十年大治,专政十八年最终势败身裂。<br /><br />中外改革周期:多以五至十年为一节点<br /><br />尽管上述两场改革时空各异进程参差,但梭伦的十年约定和商鞅十年成功,还是引发了我的思考。任何事物的发展都存在阶段性,检索中外历史上有代表性的改革,大体上以五至十年为一节点,越到近代越有节律感。<br />北魏孝文帝改革:公元471年即位,自484年起开始改革,首推俸禄制,翌年颁布均田令。十年后(495年)迁都洛阳,全面实行汉化政策。499年崩逝,在位28年。<br />北宋王安石变法:公元1069年出任首相,陆续实行均输、青苗等新法。五年后(1074年)罢相,翌年被召回复职, 1076年第二次罢相。下台后新法犹存,1086年司马光为相,尽废之。<br />明朝张居正改革:自公元1572年起,连续十年任内阁首辅,创制“考成法” “一条鞭法”。1582年病卒后,被褫夺官爵,查抄家产。<br />俄国沙皇亚历山大二世改革:1856年召见莫斯科贵族,提出自上而下改革农奴制的设想,翌年成立农民事务秘密委员会。五年后的1861年,颁布农奴制改革法令。1881年准备启动君主立宪改革,遇刺身亡。<br />日本明治维新:狭义的明治维新,自1868年宣布改元“明治”始。广义上则可从1867年起算,包括“大政奉还”、“王政复古”等政治事件。五年节点上(1872年)废藩置县,十年节点上(1877年)结束西南战争,维新大局底定。<br />列国改革历史进程中,还有不少以五至十年为一节点的情况,例如:俄国斯托雷平土地改革(1906-1911),中国清末新政( 1901-1911),美国罗斯福新政 (1933-1939),前苏联戈尔巴乔夫改革(1986-1991)等。节点本身未必十分规范,同时也存在着例外:如中国唐代的“永贞革新”和清代的“戊戌变法”,皆历时百日即告失败;而欧洲的宗教改革,则长达一个世纪……,等等,需具体分析其政治、文化等方面的特殊原因。<br /><br />失败标本之一:斯托雷平改革(1906-1911)<br /><br />亚历山大二世遇刺身亡后,罗曼诺夫王朝的改革停滞。1905年革命后,尼古拉二世被迫颁布了等同于宪法的《俄罗斯帝国基本法》,成立国家杜马立法议会、实行多党制。沙皇俄国最后一位改革家斯托雷平,于1906年由内务大臣升任大臣会议主席(首相)。<br />斯托雷平改革从矛盾冲突最激烈的土地问题入手,可谓切中肯綮。斯托雷平努力将传统村社份地私有化,改善农民的法律地位和经济境遇;同时通过地方管理和自治机关的政治改革,试图扶持起一个保守忠君的富农阶级,维持帝国的经济和政治稳定。<br />按当下的说法,斯托雷平是个标准的新权威主义者,改革与镇压两手抓,两手都很硬。为强推土地改革方案,他不惜得罪贵族地主,曾于1906、1907年间两度解散国家杜马;同时建立军事法庭网镇压国内“敌对势力”,在1906至1909年间,就有逾3,000人被处于绞刑,被称为“斯托雷平的领带”。<br />斯托雷平的铁腕式改革手法,曾受到另一位改革家维特伯爵的批评。他在顶层与底层之间腹背受敌,处境略似两千多年前的梭伦和商鞅,且逐渐失去沙皇的支持。在五年节点上,政治改革惨遭滑铁卢,地方自治方案于1911年遭第三届杜马否决,斯托雷平被迫辞去首相职务。同年9月14日,他被革命者刺杀,挽救沙皇俄国的最后一次改革宣告失败。五年多之后,“二月革命”“十月革命”相继爆发,罗曼诺夫王朝倾覆,政权落入布尔什维克之手。<br /><br />失败标本之二:大清新政(1901-1911)<br /><br />斯托雷平改革失败之际,邻国大清的新政也进入了弥留时刻。<br />义和团事变和八国联军入侵,导致了《辛丑条约》的屈辱结局,也成为大清最后一次改革的起点,其方向与三年前的戊戌变法雷同——学习日本实行君主立宪。新政期间,官制、行政、军制、法律、财税、币制、教育等改革逐步推开,并废除了沿袭千年的科举制度。<br />五年后新政出现第一个节点,朝廷于1906年9月下诏预备仿行立宪,设立专门政治体制改革机构“考察政治馆”。各地纷纷成立立宪公会。1908年8月颁布《钦定宪法大纲》,并公布了以九年为期的筹备立宪时间表,同时放宽报禁党禁,推行地方自治,各省选举咨议局。<br />1908年11月15日,慈禧太后及光绪帝同日逝世。近年考古发现证明:光绪系中毒身亡。此前这对母子的权力斗争,导致了戊戌变法的失败,此后则令新政在临近第二个节点时出现变数:满族亲贵担心在政治改革中失去权力,1911年5月成立了以“太子党”为主体的“皇族内阁”。13名内阁成员中,满人占8名(其中宗室6人、觉罗1人)、汉人4名、蒙古人1名。<br />满清以少数民族入主中原,对汉族士人多取利用而不信用的政策。朝廷用人,满汉之别由来已久。钱穆先生曾指为自私的“部族政权”,余英时先生亦形象地称之为“族天下”。同光以来,以曾国藩、左宗棠、李鸿章等为代表的汉臣,在太平天国之乱和洋务运动的历史机遇中,获得了政治、经济实力,并在“东南互保”中培育了地方政治势力。<br />1905年的废科举,断绝了多数汉族传统知识分子的仕进之途,一时怨望甚多。1910年,汉族士绅组成的各省咨议局,曾联合十数省督抚请愿向朝廷施压,要求提前立宪及速开国会。自私的“皇族内阁”,更重燃起沉寂二百多年的满汉仇恨,令汉族官员和士绅转而倾向民族革命。咨议局还在铁路国有化问题上与中央政府对抗,四川保路运动成了武昌起义的导火索,宪政改革逆转为排满革命,导致了大清王朝的覆灭。<br /><br />余 论<br /><br />历史上的改革家,处于不同阶层利益冲突的夹缝中,一步不慎,全盘皆输。梭伦和商鞅两位改革家,是古代史上政治成功、下场迥异的范例。斯托雷平改革和清末新政,是近代史上同期失败的一对典型。反思改革成败得失,不免令人感叹:梭伦的政治智慧,的确是人类文明史上的一颗恒星。<br />革命家列宁和孙中山都曾担心,朝廷改革的成功,将令他们的革命抱负失去机会。执政者凭借“顶层设计”自上而下地推行改革,目标都是避免革命。如果利益圈子太小或无法平衡各方利益,其后果往往是人亡政息,甚至犯下“颠覆性错误”。<br />纵观中外改革史,多数改革都不太可能持续太长的时间。如果改革在启动后的五至十年间不能取得势头,就不大可能继续。<br />中国当下的权力更替,正是以五年为一周期。笔者在2012年预言中国将出现“皇族内阁”式的政体,并提出“五年看改,十年看埋”的命题:如果政治改革在第一个五年内未能启动,第二个五年也就无须启动了。这个命题曾被广泛引用,本文是相关研讨的后续。<br /><br />2014年2月16日 北京风雨读书楼<br />《炎黄春秋》2014年第5期(发表时有删节)<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-6932693911090049112024-03-27T12:44:00.004+08:002024-03-27T12:44:00.135+08:00骗子的“金句”:“我们不是诈骗,#我们只是根据每个人的智商重新分配财产。”<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4h108x"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4h108x","div":"rumble_v4h108x"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-41778964215561882132024-03-27T12:10:00.021+08:002024-03-27T12:10:00.140+08:00帮忙资金帮不了公募基金<p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGPH1_hZC4cpb7mk5seCerbI0HINb4EFT1mKTk2xXddU1FKrudz3chRIVYMDxcSVdvpnJlvvR073PW_dp4qdMWERW-fRva7N5oKeKKk5RTHS9mFRbItI1ZGr28l1mGB_04CX8yG_AMI54nFr3tt9iYYsumesUX_1TvXfboCv1NDXRj-CZrrVsMeVnNA0Qt/s1080/Ct1El3P4dJavOLR.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="1080" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGPH1_hZC4cpb7mk5seCerbI0HINb4EFT1mKTk2xXddU1FKrudz3chRIVYMDxcSVdvpnJlvvR073PW_dp4qdMWERW-fRva7N5oKeKKk5RTHS9mFRbItI1ZGr28l1mGB_04CX8yG_AMI54nFr3tt9iYYsumesUX_1TvXfboCv1NDXRj-CZrrVsMeVnNA0Qt/s320/Ct1El3P4dJavOLR.webp" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />文/楚团长聊聊天<br /><br />这一轮中证 A50ETF 的营销竞争,临近集体上市交易前夕,终于擦出点火星子了,看得出各家营销有在发力。但经历过基金公司在中证 1000 上的逐鹿中原,再看看当下十家基金公司在中证 A50 的竞争,总感觉有点菜鸡互啄的感觉。<br /><br />当然此一时彼一时,很多外部环境都发生了巨大的变化。且不说市场、舆情这等有些虚无缥缈的部分,去年底严禁交易佣金转移支付的新规,就让中证 1000 大战中,各家基金公司挥舞着支票,尽情冲击规模的盛况再难复现。<br /><br />其实,不管是中证 1000 里 80 倍佣金补贴的魔法对轰,还是如今中证 A50 上点到为止的相敬如宾,都尾随着一个行业魅影:帮忙资金。而帮忙资金的背后,是整个公募基金传统销售体系的积弊。<br /><br />正文展开之前,叠个甲,记录下我对现象的观察和思考而已。没有任何攻击性,文章中涉及到一些相关公司和产品,能做处理的都做一定扭曲和打码,无意批评任何方面。行业问题也不是任何机构单方面的责任,发展的问题在发展中解决,未来越来越好。<br /><br />ETF,帮忙资金的主战场<br /><br />我的好朋友泥沼在分析这次中证 A50ETF 募集中,为什么易方达募集金额有点低于预期时,第一条原因就指向了首发时的帮忙资金问题。(后面几条分析的也很有道理,ETF 的线上持营已经成为行业的新命题之一,属于电商和渠道的交叉学科,回头可以单独写文章聊)<br /><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWp2-rL9L5Qxz2FcAQsn1sr-A3LnJd3ehGXeFMgOsaC9AdfGaVPWBB96exLV6k9zAQADqiTfWZcU32kUQiZuatAfMAMoxDejQddLDWnG9p-uf0ecolB4pEjHyG0-sQXA99GkLbvxerqTxBj1kN6M-rYgBKhagisWdxOxOEaVMcykF0dEP4orNJpy_foAob/s1356/gSL5NyVvteFQ7HJ.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1356" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWp2-rL9L5Qxz2FcAQsn1sr-A3LnJd3ehGXeFMgOsaC9AdfGaVPWBB96exLV6k9zAQADqiTfWZcU32kUQiZuatAfMAMoxDejQddLDWnG9p-uf0ecolB4pEjHyG0-sQXA99GkLbvxerqTxBj1kN6M-rYgBKhagisWdxOxOEaVMcykF0dEP4orNJpy_foAob/s320/gSL5NyVvteFQ7HJ.webp" width="255" /></a></p><p>ETF 有着很特殊的马太效应属性,规模和流动性的优势很容易扩大到遥遥领先。君不见华泰柏瑞沪深 300 规模已经突破 2000 亿了,其实易方达沪深 300(510310)的费率更低,而且如今在线上运营也很卖力,但还是差距很远。当某一指数迎来多家基金公司同时发行 ETF 时,基金公司抢跑的动力就很足。<br /><br />早点结束募集是一种办法,可以尽早上市得到投资者的关注红利,还可以吸引到媒体的报道红利。请帮忙资金来冲上市规模,则属于行业心照不宣的默契,帮忙资金在 ETF 上市之初提供流动性,在散户冲进来之后再撤离。所谓帮忙资金,就是利用基金的营销政策,在基金的新发和保壳中做套利的资金。<br /><br />远川投资评论曾在采访文章《头部券商一线员工:佣金改革如同「教培双减」,但我们这个行业早该走到这一天》中,通过资深从业人员海哥,详尽的披露了具体细节:<br /><br />据我所知的,当时是怎么卖的?万 8 的交易佣金,乘以 80 倍的佣金补贴,就是 6.4% 的创收,那销售 100 万中证 1000,员工可以得到 6 万 4 的创收,最终到手的提成根据每家券商比例略有不同,但多少基层员工一年的考核创收指标可能也就是 20 到 30 万,意思是你只要销售 300 万中证 1000 的基金,你一年的创收 KPI 基本上完成了大部分。<br /><br />基金公司之所以愿意付出这样巨大的代价,主要是因为 ETF 一旦能够在大 beta 赛道实现领先,那真的就遥遥领先了,成百上千亿的规模躺赢般的就进来了。说到这很难不戏谑的想到《让子弹飞》的剧情,当然并不完全是这个意思,但帮忙资金所扮演的角色,实在与豪绅接近。<br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiANXpWVwsgnTNNCCqYYLI3uPRGgZuOtPIcwfbXcvfqB5s0VzHMfvo67KZXQvuz5Blkdx_yrL-oDlm79bPEu7QWuI1JCnNbOhBsJ9byUmjVfVHYHZbtXpR5l-ldMOIYeGhC_BXyEjQT5fZGVlupyXCq562I1Zib3tOhh-PLp99vfRmhMKdRt3OS1gcbdj0N/s900/GKiLwa6cvrWpJQD.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="900" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiANXpWVwsgnTNNCCqYYLI3uPRGgZuOtPIcwfbXcvfqB5s0VzHMfvo67KZXQvuz5Blkdx_yrL-oDlm79bPEu7QWuI1JCnNbOhBsJ9byUmjVfVHYHZbtXpR5l-ldMOIYeGhC_BXyEjQT5fZGVlupyXCq562I1Zib3tOhh-PLp99vfRmhMKdRt3OS1gcbdj0N/s320/GKiLwa6cvrWpJQD.webp" width="320" /></a></p><p>在每一次 ETF 的集体发行中,帮忙资金的身影总不会缺席,在最近的中证 A50 发行中,我也收到了类似寻找资金的小卡片。<br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRKh93cmeXa7bGhO0MIrNPAhyphenhypheniQ8YmWZcJZwHpMqgDErahwuy0jZKHuhyphenhypheniEpfRKAPLRnObqSm3y8JgRDryEbG3IbAY5hi45zFEQJYiRtu6ohjHxxsnkk8xGuzmKDawYh1UlDqXPHVsUnP2TbN96n6Q1Da5ULhy96cG6v4MiUSDol-Ug74v93eIOQsTfY7V/s1623/hoce78bFjwxQR6v.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1623" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRKh93cmeXa7bGhO0MIrNPAhyphenhypheniQ8YmWZcJZwHpMqgDErahwuy0jZKHuhyphenhypheniEpfRKAPLRnObqSm3y8JgRDryEbG3IbAY5hi45zFEQJYiRtu6ohjHxxsnkk8xGuzmKDawYh1UlDqXPHVsUnP2TbN96n6Q1Da5ULhy96cG6v4MiUSDol-Ug74v93eIOQsTfY7V/s320/hoce78bFjwxQR6v.webp" width="213" /></a></p><p>可以看到,现如今帮忙资金已经形成了一整套完整的产业链,有资金掮客在其中左右倒腾,对接客户资金和基金公司的政策。也有很多机构资金在其中做对价交换,保险 / 基金公司自有资金 / 券商自有资金 /fof 都会有所涉及。还是以这次中证 A50 的发行来说,有一家私募产品就出现在多只 A50 的前十大持仓中,属性惹人怀疑。<br /><br />ETF 这两年发展的如火如荼,基金公司都特别重视相关业务的发展,在上市之初追求规模的特殊性,导致 ETF 成为帮忙资金产业链的核心业务。在相关产业链黄牛向券商客户经理提供的聊天记录中,对方毫不避讳这一点。<br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQtf7K1LP_Ixga58AI4OT_sjlEedqMCyq3cuRj1PV9owk6iScQUO_t-l9ui4cKUvj4g02BwK4AfBLcTNVoAV1gbODMduknGDBaPFTY6MCxcM9NmFSO0REnkklSUYspLU9bI7MRaCHf79vQgyhzT7ylH8l7iZGiTZJ75iPXULmRZoxIVWFQDBMk32DQ_wn4/s1554/G7fw3kaZDi8q2lW.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1554" data-original-width="1022" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQtf7K1LP_Ixga58AI4OT_sjlEedqMCyq3cuRj1PV9owk6iScQUO_t-l9ui4cKUvj4g02BwK4AfBLcTNVoAV1gbODMduknGDBaPFTY6MCxcM9NmFSO0REnkklSUYspLU9bI7MRaCHf79vQgyhzT7ylH8l7iZGiTZJ75iPXULmRZoxIVWFQDBMk32DQ_wn4/s320/G7fw3kaZDi8q2lW.webp" width="210" /></a></p><p>凡事都有代价,试图以帮忙资金来在 ETF 的竞争中博取先发优势,就要接受徒劳无功的可能性。有一些 ETF 在付出了巨大的营销代价后,帮忙资金到期撤退,结果规模骤减,成交量也远远不如竞品,最后就成为公司的心病。帮忙资金抽身离去继续套利,徒留基金公司黯然神伤。<br /><br />帮忙资金其实并不是代指某一类具体的资金,更像是一种统称。传统银行券商渠道的客户经理为了完成销售任务,自掏腰包买基金,过了考核期就赎回;资金掮客在客户资源和基金公司政策激励之间游走;机构资金的对价交换…… 从宽泛的角度看,这些都属于帮忙资金。<br /><br />从表面上看,帮忙资金并没有直接伤害谁的利益,但细究起来却会品咂出苦涩的滋味。<br /><br />帮忙资金帮倒忙<br /><br />年前和樊姐寒暄拜年,樊姐是我很尊敬的券商一线投顾,勤奋有亲和力,将客户利益置于自己利益之上,居然还是销冠。我也在营业部工作过些日子的,实在不理解樊姐是如何同时做到这些的,一直有向樊姐请教些基金营销一线的情况。<br /><br />樊姐跟我吐槽她们营业部最近遇到的糟心事,有一款新发量化基金,发行之初基金公司承诺会谨慎建仓,尽快打开。他们营业部给到的具体政策是卖 100 万,给两个月津贴。2 月之前,正是微盘股策略炙手可热的时候,营业部员工就蠢蠢欲动了。有员工借了消费贷,一下子买了两百万。<br /><br />结果行情风云突变,这只营销材料上写着中证 500 指增的量化基金,不仅一成立就仓位拉满,而且净值下跌和彼时雪崩的微盘股策略几乎一致,很短时间内就跌破了 0.85。贷款买入基金的营业部员工欲哭无泪,在对接群疯狂咒骂对接的基金公司渠道。<br /><br />在产品放开赎回后,该券商迅速的赎回了几千万的对应产品。樊姐和同事对话的截图我就不全放出来了,比较经典的是有人问:难道你卖的是客户真实配置资金?<br /><br />可见该现象已经普遍到猖獗了。<br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN9V4E_hCY3SX69a10uiVjTlUx4a7tGasiC0xVWUG8wqNJVMeAE4qKFjzQt-Y6m_qIrWsYzt_hgoztSp-tJp2zZLUh6eI0ZggvCI9jEWjVXU7UTfHPANp1mwkha_hfn-kk2LWeu-_vlVt_sjMGgmq-tF2lW5OHWnmaYBB2xa0BlxPqEXVVv13rss2BZ0yb/s1231/41ASGB3Cwvxkd6m.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1231" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN9V4E_hCY3SX69a10uiVjTlUx4a7tGasiC0xVWUG8wqNJVMeAE4qKFjzQt-Y6m_qIrWsYzt_hgoztSp-tJp2zZLUh6eI0ZggvCI9jEWjVXU7UTfHPANp1mwkha_hfn-kk2LWeu-_vlVt_sjMGgmq-tF2lW5OHWnmaYBB2xa0BlxPqEXVVv13rss2BZ0yb/s320/41ASGB3Cwvxkd6m.webp" width="281" /></a></p><p>券结模式在创新之处还有很多模式创新的讨论和展望,伴随着行情的沉闷,逐渐成为了券商一线员工的噩梦。源源不断的券结产品推出,但是客户对于权益基金甚至说基金的投资兴趣基本趋近于零,券结产品的销售指标最后都压在了券商一线人员的头上。我认识的一线员工,贷款上百万在不同产品间倒腾的不在少数。这两年银行的贷款利率降低,倒也是给券商营业部员工不小的帮助。<br /><br />年后新村长上任,有一波广开言路的意见征集,其中有一条来自券商基层员工的慷慨陈词传播极广,就是针对券结产品带来的行业乱相。<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGW713OwrNtbNgn1KvdioM-uTnK12lHPhtxEJh7vIdXY6G3L4wAiari8KJsj3xeSgNl8M3zXzDvo6Keu3LjE74Gtcq6sQEOFMGMWaEL3nq3-kXA7pGV_Cu8k0EPoxAlaLDKrip4b2QOsewvLxBk-BeQCeijHYjgZ-AJmfq45Ceq4a96aXIchx6Qxh9jKBT/s1417/Wk5tJYcdHKnaMoh.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1417" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGW713OwrNtbNgn1KvdioM-uTnK12lHPhtxEJh7vIdXY6G3L4wAiari8KJsj3xeSgNl8M3zXzDvo6Keu3LjE74Gtcq6sQEOFMGMWaEL3nq3-kXA7pGV_Cu8k0EPoxAlaLDKrip4b2QOsewvLxBk-BeQCeijHYjgZ-AJmfq45Ceq4a96aXIchx6Qxh9jKBT/s320/Wk5tJYcdHKnaMoh.webp" width="244" /></a></div><p>早些时候,帮忙资金还只是基金发行过程中的添头,这两年基金销售陷入冰点,很多基金的发行几乎就只剩下帮忙资金了,堪称是尬发。经常出现产品发行到可赎回阶段后,规模一下子跌掉九成的情况。<br /><br />这与前些年银行卖首发基金时,不断鼓励客户卖出微微盈利的产品再去买新基金的情况,还不同。那还属于是客户资金的行为,如今的帮募基金生态,越来越畸形和失去生命力。<br /><br />在连续的大亏之后,客户对于公募基金的投资热情衰减的比股市下跌更快。有个段子说投顾去营销货币 + 组合,然后客户陷入沉思:可是他是基金啊!<br /><br />一面是真实客户的逃离,另一面则是新基金的沉重任务,这样的生态环境,很难不让人想起成语竭泽而渔。<br />看起来帮忙资金是兜住了行业的面子,实际上是换了一种更加丑陋的方式慢性死亡。<br /><br />最后的话<br /><br />可能有人要问,为什么公募基金要搞那么多新发?以前是银行、券商渠道要求,现如今的原因更加复杂。有的时候是批文快要过期了,再不发就浪费了;有的时候是产品要做前瞻性布局;还有的时候纯粹有枣没枣打一杆子,毕竟基金发行也有玄学的成分……<br /><br />帮忙资金赚的,就是基金公司激励政策的这部分钱。牛市的时候,这部分钱还能货真价实的给到投资者,熊市深处,就只有帮忙资金来钻营取巧了。<br /><br />有的基金公司在帮忙资金的问题上吃了大亏,天量的营销费用撒出去,发行的时候 ETF 有几十亿规模,但帮忙资金撤走之后,竹篮打水一场空,上过这种大当的基金公司不在少数。<br /><br />再往深里说,这种针对激励政策的套利,也不仅仅存在于银行、券商和基金公司之间,银行的总行和分行之间也有非常精彩甚至令人瞠目结舌的套利创新。<br /><br />对公募基金而言,过去十几年构建起来的这套线下销售体系,显然已经到了不得不变的时刻。如何拥抱变化是每家机构都需要深思的事,让所谓的帮忙资金套利新发基金的营销费用,从长期看无异于饮鸩止渴。建设有价值有效率的投销协同路径,才是正路,才符合高质量发展的精神。<br /><br />对于券商而言,用高压的任务去压迫基层员工,是一种慢性死亡,不,是一种加速死亡。营业部已经在凋亡了,不去给基层员工更多的支持,反而把员工当耗材,那么券商在财富管理的未来,到底扮演什么角色呢?<br /><br />总而言之,帮忙资金是在帮倒忙,只有自己才能帮自己。<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-22758402408700521392024-03-26T15:39:00.003+08:002024-03-26T15:39:00.184+08:00舆论的去中心化<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWRkbwEv1QslKyvceApqhMm5zIHkKwNfgE-t7dSXeDkdslD2BDcLCjFDz3jTJ9nmTiZ95ZoDmepMQc5XtUOPYXp3LiUj7yifwleIG6CD71EktgyAg8V5IxkjKlEYhY4caj80l7lcUo1Cpd1f03RE8tjVhQNc-2O6WVHIMbx2T9HJwWKVRNMBpCO8n-KBGK/s1280/7lYAryuRwbQgJLW.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1280" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWRkbwEv1QslKyvceApqhMm5zIHkKwNfgE-t7dSXeDkdslD2BDcLCjFDz3jTJ9nmTiZ95ZoDmepMQc5XtUOPYXp3LiUj7yifwleIG6CD71EktgyAg8V5IxkjKlEYhY4caj80l7lcUo1Cpd1f03RE8tjVhQNc-2O6WVHIMbx2T9HJwWKVRNMBpCO8n-KBGK/s320/7lYAryuRwbQgJLW.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />@饭统戴老板:农夫山泉事件差不多已经消停了,但此事的一个谜团可能还会萦绕很久 —— 就是全网很少有大 v 主动攻击农夫山泉,顶多冷言两句,敢主动带节奏几乎没有,但为什么最后舆情仍然难以收拾?<br /><br />一个被频繁指出的原因是「舆论的去中心化」,换句大白话来说就是汹涌的声浪是 “自下而上” 生成的,难以被所谓精英阶层的 “共识” 所压制。很多讨论指向了两个源头:一是算法推荐的兴起,二是短视频的全民化。<br /><br />舆论的去中心化,的确是一个逐步的过程。<br /><br />举个不太恰当的例子,1988 年李宁在汉城奥运会失利,骂他的人乌泱乌泱,但其实没地方骂,只能给报社写信或者给电视台打电话,但那会儿的编辑可以直接把信扔垃圾箱,阻断这种 “自下而上” 的势头。<br /><br />到了 2008 年刘翔在北京奥运会退赛,天涯论坛上骂声一片,这时候就没法控制了,但这些声讨大都被隔离在各个论坛、社区和人们酒后茶余的饭桌上,没法串联,主流媒体仍然可以通过 “定调” 来维持表面和谐。<br /><br />所以 2008 年宗老爷子被传出有美国绿卡,没几个人在自家门口倒娃哈哈纯净水 —— 即使倒了也没人理你。<br /><br />但 2009 年之后,社交媒体、算法推荐和短视频等先后诞生,舆论场的媒介形式发生了巨大变化,自上而下卷起的风暴越来越汹涌。同样是刘翔,他在 2012 年伦敦奥运会退赛后,遭遇的才是真正意义上的 “网暴”。<br /><br />到了短视频时代,「表达」更在不断平权:只要掏出手机,打开摄像头,找几个摆拍角度,配上 BGM 就能生产内容,不需要写作门槛,不需要给媒体投稿,而且拍出来的东西论调动情绪,显然比总台卫视们猛多了。<br /><br />而且以前给报社写信骂李宁,还得费邮票钱;现在拍个倒农夫山泉的视频,很多人觉得这是在攒库里南碎片。<br /><br />如果内容生产出来,传播还是容易被掐断,那多数闹剧就跟村口耍大刀没什么区别。但现在,很多粗糙、简单甚至反智的内容却常常被算法自动、精准、不带意识色彩地完成了大规模的自动推荐。<br /><br />格拉德威尔在《引爆点》中曾经提到过:要想创造一个风潮,传播链条上必须有 “联系员” 和 “推销员”,才能完成传播的接力和扩散 —— 在各类智能推荐的平台上,算法就是最高效的 “联系员” 和 “推销员”。<br /><br />所以,短视频的低门槛 + 算法的高效率,两者加持,「舆论的去中心化」就诞生了。<br /><br />其实,某些你不愿意听到的声音,它一直存在,只不过以前它们很少被制作出来,制作出来也传播不出去,但有了新的媒介平台后,这些声音就有了大规模传播的可能。所以传播学大师麦克卢汉的那句经典名言「媒介即信息」,的确有点意思。<br /><br />麦克卢汉还有一个比喻,就是:我们人类都是看门狗,媒介形式是小偷,而传播的内容是一块肉。小偷为了转移注意力,将肉扔给人类,所以我们就只关注传播的内容,而忽略了媒介形式的重要性。<br /><br />这里要表扬一下微博。微博是所有媒介平台中,对反智言论 “阻断” 相对最高效的平台,注意是相对哈。<br /><br />微博的内容机制,决定了它这个平台的特点,比如 “转发” 功能 —— 你看到一个傻逼言论,只需要点一下转发键,加几句自己的评论,就可以实现对原 po 内容的批判。像 “追加附注” 之类的功能,也能让离谱的言论迅速被围攻。<br /><br />这里并不是说微博上不会出现傻逼言论,而是说傻逼言论往往会迅速被识别出来。比如最近三个初中生霸凌案,短视频平台上谣言头骨碎裂照片的视频动辄几十万赞,背后是上千万播放,而微博这边没传播多少次就被辟谣了。<br /><br />所以无论是德国下水道油纸包,还是永乐大典发明蒸汽机,在微博这里都很难存活 —— 一大批相互看不惯甚至痛恨对方的网友,共同创造了一个平衡,这个平衡点,反而最能接近社会共识。<br /><br />另外一个现象是:凡是深度割韭菜的,都会害怕微博,远离微博,即使敢来也会被网友七脚八拳打出去。<br /><br />不过,短视频平台目前虽然存在问题,但它的低门槛和精准分发,让「表达平权」实现了一大步。我记得以前潘乱说过:短视频是新一代的白话文运动。此言非虚。不过在机制设计上,其他平台的确应该多向微博学习。<br /><br />最后,建议企业多给微博投点儿广告吧,尤其是大企业,在舆论去中心化的趋势下,这里还有一些平衡机制,能够保持相对理性,能凝聚一些社会共识,实属难能可贵。 过去几年,时代的潮水排山倒海,如果没有微博的话,难以想象。<br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-88577646554731527442024-03-26T15:15:00.000+08:002024-03-27T00:15:52.245+08:00微语录精选 0326:年青时想嫁给爱情<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCslMjLlnI0Og28xbI4uHdTxg8MzNQJQ3zK17nOms2yUiyddX1zKv866Bs74atG5Z02foSTpjQAccNcxdn2aiZDTEy5ylfoxIW0Qszy9CjdXmybCgUNx4GuRbJrXJ4pKYUB4CzSpcB8rfkQTjGMf2-mcceh5HFNfy3GqXqDJjegd4WNwqPxXePVR4DbKwj/s1280/gnPzZo6OtQmraed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="715" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCslMjLlnI0Og28xbI4uHdTxg8MzNQJQ3zK17nOms2yUiyddX1zKv866Bs74atG5Z02foSTpjQAccNcxdn2aiZDTEy5ylfoxIW0Qszy9CjdXmybCgUNx4GuRbJrXJ4pKYUB4CzSpcB8rfkQTjGMf2-mcceh5HFNfy3GqXqDJjegd4WNwqPxXePVR4DbKwj/s320/gnPzZo6OtQmraed.jpg" width="179" /></a></div><br /><p>@织女 Vega:年青时想嫁给爱情,<br />长大一点点想嫁给金钱,<br />后来成熟了才知道自己要嫁的是:<br />人品、责任、担当、是三观,<br />再后来觉得不嫁最好。 <br /><br />@晏凌羊:整个舆论环境都是:对大恶的宽容度太高,对小错的宽容度太低。本质上还是 “欺软怕硬”,能作出 “大恶” 的人肯定比只做点小错事的人更令人恐惧。 <br /><br />@织女 Vega:在奋斗的过程中,难以预料前路如何,选择与谁同行,比要去的远方更重要。<br /><br />@Summer 最聪明:反对形式主义,但在反对形式主义的过程中往往会滋生出更多的形式主义。<br />不走上社会不上几年班是理解不了这句话的。 <br /><br />@雷斯林 Raist:说因为人口生育率下降,儿童减少,最近两年已经关停了超过 2 万所幼儿园了。<br />这其实已经不能算黑天鹅了,应该是妥妥的灰犀牛。<br />人口生育率下降,影响的肯定不只是幼儿园老师们,在可预见的未来,还会带来的影响包括但不限于:<br />1,教师不再是铁饭碗,不再需要那么多教师。<br />2,养老金缺口。以及带来的延迟退休,德国反正已经 67 岁才能退休了。<br />3,医保缺口。<br />4,消费结构调整。<br />5,养老产业发展。<br /><br />@星辰与海 starsea:普通人的婚姻是这样的:男的必须拼命挣钱,女的必须当牛做马,谁要是不愿意干或者没能力干了,分分钟被嫌弃指责。大家都绷的太紧了,没有一个人可以轻松愉快的生活。 <br /><br />@satchit:有时候人们回到你的生活中,只是为了检查你是否仍然愚蠢。<br /><br />@Stonk-Monk:每一部 “世界末日” 电影实际上都是一部 “世界如何幸存” 的电影。<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-65391229846252425872024-03-26T11:01:00.008+08:002024-03-26T11:01:00.340+08:00专家阎学通评价粉红们对世界的错误看法<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4hbkxx"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4hbkxx","div":"rumble_v4hbkxx"});</script><br /><p></p><p>==要点==</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEQQUYaXulSPP3OOkFrcXMibFLf7jEmyVG2BGJyEt9qgXZj-i6rMfIZkoBGWizJuQCVNp72SmyOCJjpM0pmMb0O2vbb9FH84ldFt2r8zPNaTNZaO188Qliuf5LAoJ-3Uy_kyLlFcLSdpXqYmIh8OBqWsTimfagCxXmiStzhiyd4CKWZ1LvO6UBwYduCMz/s767/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20240318110421.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="767" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEQQUYaXulSPP3OOkFrcXMibFLf7jEmyVG2BGJyEt9qgXZj-i6rMfIZkoBGWizJuQCVNp72SmyOCJjpM0pmMb0O2vbb9FH84ldFt2r8zPNaTNZaO188Qliuf5LAoJ-3Uy_kyLlFcLSdpXqYmIh8OBqWsTimfagCxXmiStzhiyd4CKWZ1LvO6UBwYduCMz/s320/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20240318110421.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-14141669219471113072024-03-26T07:27:00.001+08:002024-03-26T07:27:00.241+08:00河北邸郸肥乡被害初中生家属律师描述尸检所见:非常惨无人道,令人发指!<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4il92i"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4il92i","div":"rumble_v4il92i"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-57502834762301478932024-03-26T00:48:00.004+08:002024-03-26T00:48:44.870+08:00俄罗斯这次恐袭的应对方案,让我想到这幅漫画<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5oHX3kkrxio0tT_DSrWmhQHsAeE6IAmEGz8kG7zmEA30G5bECF8ZTsxN5kwtH2QF7nYffVokOPUhzyu9nbDJeD1jYyqlP08LFjVj2E7XlQfhQnEDVJjgnCdr2rAV3iQXQ06_VYG9-juQFTjOZHhxmDewjefjXp7XjdUkzSlXptS-LSmpU9i2lKxWuDhcp/s868/601674f1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="868" data-original-width="599" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5oHX3kkrxio0tT_DSrWmhQHsAeE6IAmEGz8kG7zmEA30G5bECF8ZTsxN5kwtH2QF7nYffVokOPUhzyu9nbDJeD1jYyqlP08LFjVj2E7XlQfhQnEDVJjgnCdr2rAV3iQXQ06_VYG9-juQFTjOZHhxmDewjefjXp7XjdUkzSlXptS-LSmpU9i2lKxWuDhcp/s320/601674f1.jpg" width="221" /></a></div><br />@一笑奈何嘤嘤嘤<br />俄罗斯这次恐袭的应对方案,让我想到这幅漫画。俄方坚称凶手还没逃走,并在一天之内抓捕了十几个人,挨个在电视上承认罪状,ISIS被俄方的骚操作给震惊了,于是昨天晚上放出枪手照片,再次通告全世界枪手都已经返回基地,俄官方再次否认,说我们抓到的才是凶手,你们ISIS说的不算。虽然现场的凶手们战术动作熟练,行动配合无间,显示出长期共同训练和生活的特征,但是俄官方坚定声称凶手们是在网上随机招聘的半文盲,胡乱凑在了一起,没有任何训练痕迹。[衰] <br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-53572031997600409022024-03-25T17:16:00.000+08:002024-03-25T17:16:07.653+08:00你用过最有效的心理操纵是什么?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4rw1zelajYdaoZmr-eqpUXup96rOyQXa3JX16GbuAuOUfJfZpKJqErA-HzX-QDkZy29puwl-f5dnScD2S9nrcPT_pbtyvFGvNPBJSMsHM_UVs-kdJe81cZhj5JrVAWr13XSmG4V4yoitjj1wKfjasiiUVugsV2y93BNrt1U9Q6KlKVW8pvTPbFPHW8T8X/s512/tKpWi78Se3EUDcL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4rw1zelajYdaoZmr-eqpUXup96rOyQXa3JX16GbuAuOUfJfZpKJqErA-HzX-QDkZy29puwl-f5dnScD2S9nrcPT_pbtyvFGvNPBJSMsHM_UVs-kdJe81cZhj5JrVAWr13XSmG4V4yoitjj1wKfjasiiUVugsV2y93BNrt1U9Q6KlKVW8pvTPbFPHW8T8X/s320/tKpWi78Se3EUDcL.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />@阑夕:Reddit 问答版:你用过最有效的心理操纵是什么?<br /><br />– 我会观察人们对他人释放善意时会做什么,并以同样的做法回报。比如我的姐姐很喜欢给朋友寄卡片答谢之类,我意识到她也非常期待收到这样的卡片,所以我会定期给我姐姐寄卡片,而这会让她感动到热泪盈眶。<br /><br />– 承认我犯的错误,全盘接受,甚至过度批评自己。这往往能够使受伤的人无法进一步批评我。<br /><br />– 给孩子(10 岁)一种选择的错觉,以便让他们做我想让他们做的事情,不要说「穿上你的袜子」,而是说「你想穿这双袜子还是那双袜子」。让他们感受到自拥有一些生活中的控制权,并练习如何作出决定。<br /><br />– 我最喜欢用的一个技巧是,当我失眠时,我会蜷缩成最舒适的姿势,闭上眼睛,然后努力假装是早上 6 点,必须起床上班去了。不知道为什么,这总能让我很快入睡。<br /><br />– 当我的孩子们还小的时候,如果我觉得他们在撒谎,我会让他们伸出舌头。他们认为我可以从舌头的颜色判断他们有没有撒谎。实际上,是他们伸出舌头时会不会犹豫才让我知道他们是否在撒谎。<br /><br />– 在与商务客户交流时,如果他们提到自己的孩子,请要求看一张照片或者问一些能引发自豪父母回应的问题,这可以加快建立信任的速度。<br /><br />– 晕船治疗,这对不知道原理的人有效。告诉晕船的人需要吃一个橙子,说橙子可以有效治疗晕船,以前的海盗们总会备着它。实际上的心理学是,晕船没有治疗办法,它是大脑失去地平线的观测尺度导致的,而吃橙子可以创造安慰剂效应,欺骗他们的大脑相信问题已经解决了。<br /><br />– 用「谢谢」代替「对不起」。比如说,「谢谢你等我」而不是「对不起我迟到了」。这会将注意力从负面情绪上移走。<br /><br />– 当有人做你喜欢的事情时,奖励他们。就像对狗说「乖」的感觉一样。所以如果他们说了你喜欢的话,「我喜欢你说的那句话!」或者「这是一个好问题」。虽然这样做本质上只是强化积极信号,但在工作场所尤其有效。例如,「我真的很喜欢你写报告的方式」或者「非常感谢你注意到那个。我钦佩你能做到这一点,而且这很有帮助」。当你学会给别人有意义的赞美时,你会惊讶地发现在社交和职业方面会变得顺畅很多。<br /><br />– 我在一家保险代理公司工作,很多客户都很脾气不好或者粗鲁。我在这个地区租房已经十年了,所以我对镇上的所有公园都很熟悉。我会看着他们的地址说:「哦!你住在金斯顿公园附近。我经常带狗在那里散步!」他然后们的态度了就完全改变了。他们不想冒犯可能在现实生活中遇到的人。<br /><br />– 如果想要和人拉近关系,就在他们擅长的事情上寻求帮助,人们喜欢感觉重要和被需要,所以你通过提问来满足他们的需求,这样他们会自动地对你产生积极的看法。这也会让他们敞开心扉,即使是很多害羞的人,如果遇到自己喜欢或擅长的事情,也会变得开朗。通过这种方式,你会遇到一些很棒的人。另外,你还可以看到他们在「权威」地位下对待他人的方式,这将帮助你决定是否想继续建立关系。<br /><br />– 我哥曾遇到一个喝醉的壮汉挑衅他,那个壮汉问「你瞅啥」,我哥说「我在家里可以看到外面有一堵 4 英尺高的石墙」。这个回答让挑衅者措手不及,并使他从高度亢奋的状态里脱离出来。随后,那个壮汉在我哥腿边坐了下来,大声痛哭,诉说自己是怎么和女朋友分手的。<br /><br />– 通过询问别人的生活来控制对话,每个人都喜欢谈论自己,这样可以显著减少他们问你一些你不想回答的问题。「你孩子在游泳队里表现怎样?他乐在其中吗?告诉我更多选拔赛的过程。」你在乎这些吗,不在乎,但对方会认为你在乎,并兴奋的谈论这些,这样你就不会被问道「你的离婚手续办得怎样了」这样的问题。<br /><br />– 我是干采购的,有次我需要给客户交付一个零部件,客户给了 6 周的期限,但生产商交货要 18 周,所以在和生产商的销售人员打电话之前,我先联系了他的老板,告诉他对接我的销售人员工作非常出色,建议给他加薪。过了几个小时,我再给那名销售人员打电话,表达了时限紧张的情况,他很热情的帮我把零部件生产需求排到了优先列表的第一位,我在 4 周后就拿到了货。<br /><br />– 当我感到不堪重负时,我会列出我需要做的所有事情,即使是琐碎的事情。然后我会逐一检查这个清单,并问自己:「如果我今天不做这件事,会发生什么坏事吗?会让我以后的生活更困难吗?」如果答案是否定的,我就划掉它。这样一来,这一天似乎更容易应对,如果需要的话,我会在第二天采取同样的步骤,直到我感到更加掌控自己的生活。<br /><br />– 我是一个平面设计师,对于那些挑剔的客户,我发 5 个版本稍有不同的完稿过去,要比只发 1 个完稿得到的修改意见少很多,因为让他们挑选会提前满足他们的控制欲。<br /><br />– 尴尬的沉默法则。在工作中,如果有人提出不合理的要求或反应过度,我就会长时间困惑的盯着他们。这甚至在我的老板身上也起作用了。<br /><br />– 如果人们因为售价上涨而生气(我在快餐店工作),我能理解他们。就像他们说的,「价格又涨了?呸!」我会说,「是的,我知道。很糟糕,不公平。」这避免了他们朝我发脾气。<br /><br />– 我在女朋友身上成功复现了「巴甫洛夫的狗」的实验,第一,当她给我口的时候,我会让她在这个过程里自慰,这让她在潜意识里将给我口和她自己的性快感关联起来,第二,在她给我口的同时我还会抚摸她的脖子,这又让脖子被抚摸的感觉和性快感联系起来。在大约一年之后,只要我想让她口我,我就会假装无意的抚摸她的脖子,而她也会涌上欲火,开始扒我的裤子。<br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-90076678397438246362024-03-25T17:10:00.001+08:002024-03-25T17:10:00.251+08:00小孩哥喊出了我补牙的心声<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4il6tf"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4il6tf","div":"rumble_v4il6tf"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-12103809927468166062024-03-25T15:50:00.001+08:002024-03-25T17:10:53.550+08:00微语录精选 0325:一上网就像打开了大清朝之书<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj236rGGzMiURasElZ5zUfl9_WRQJ9pwyMFyaIecZS-6fJCaABdRYZj2YZjWa8OFAyij_QmcevOqo4CJo1z3tsAUK8potuoo-duI0O3eTFEa_ap0IwmQUvelU3DaDsjH40INSmRzb96SY6cQabZfJHkB_0eNGYFu2ONtf6Ol3Yc82zaZGisqEoWWZMYybVA/s11896/gEBVH3S7ZzkdQFR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="11896" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj236rGGzMiURasElZ5zUfl9_WRQJ9pwyMFyaIecZS-6fJCaABdRYZj2YZjWa8OFAyij_QmcevOqo4CJo1z3tsAUK8potuoo-duI0O3eTFEa_ap0IwmQUvelU3DaDsjH40INSmRzb96SY6cQabZfJHkB_0eNGYFu2ONtf6Ol3Yc82zaZGisqEoWWZMYybVA/s320/gEBVH3S7ZzkdQFR.jpg" width="29" /></a></div><br />@织女 Vega:如果经历足够多的人生,你就会发现,一切坍塌,不在你期待之上,也不在你恐惧之下。<br />意思就是,无论你遇到什么事情,往往不如你期待的那么好,也不会像你恐惧得那样糟。 <br /><br />@即将成为做饭大师:朋友来打牌,带一果篮儿<br />我心说不年不节的<br />朋友港:四个苹果是四季平安,四个油桃是皮毛光滑,六个顺顺溜溜的香蕉是六六大顺,八个西梅是美好喜乐,俩芒果是忙点儿好<br />就这个嘴过年不得把他爷哄得大喇叭花似的 <br /><br />@他塔拉: 每天在现实世界活在真善美里,一上网就像打开了大清朝之书<br /><br />@罗妮 zyzyyuan:新加坡外交部一个司长被指控以权谋私,罪行之一是在享有外交豁免权免于海关检查的外交邮袋里夹带物品寄往中国,走私的是什么呢?毒品?<br />—— 退烧药…… 寄给 2022 年 12 月的北京。 <br /><br />@伊利达雷之怒:情绪价值懂不懂,就是那种明明浪费了三个小时听一个中年男人吹牛逼但是却产生了 “我学到了”,以为自己没有虚度光阴的错觉<br /><br />@楚团长聊聊天:投资的及时反馈太快,对人的精神实在是一种巨大的折磨。做了对的事情,可能却会连续吃瘪,能不能坚持,就要考验认知的高度和深度,反之亦然,做了错的事情,也可能连续得到正向反馈,从而彻底把人带向歧途。说来说去,好像都是命,半点不由人 <br /><br />@InquilineXx:文字的信息密度极高,也更抽象,长期沉浸于短视频的人,无论是逻辑思辨能力,亦或理解抽象复杂信息的能力,都很可能会持续下降,目前已经有越来越多的研究证明这一点,所以在这个短视频泛滥成灾的时代,对以文字阅读为主的人而言反而是重大利好,个体竞争力在上升。<br /><br />@有个梨 GPT:2027,黄仁勋:「很抱歉第一轮机器人产业革命失败了,原因是人太便宜了。」<br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-91474150894837892482024-03-25T13:18:00.001+08:002024-03-25T13:18:00.139+08:00什么是启蒙?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaEaTPKnAGQF2kTzwkcB785J1EDJziQjUl4I1K1nN73dHTzRqJRmLA8Hz16O1CIdtO_Ql99oNfJxh3DowKN9pbreMEOuvZgh44PMOkFw3akpr5lu93g9l2L9k2w8KGlykhtJPQzpiweQEev6nP3YJfMV3D_GWKVTOZldIlVCK8tT0LA7yXSnui0SddGIRy/s1280/t0vbL1tlRSxswUiX4AhjxrM1sOKKIaUggB6IRoAeiEY.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaEaTPKnAGQF2kTzwkcB785J1EDJziQjUl4I1K1nN73dHTzRqJRmLA8Hz16O1CIdtO_Ql99oNfJxh3DowKN9pbreMEOuvZgh44PMOkFw3akpr5lu93g9l2L9k2w8KGlykhtJPQzpiweQEev6nP3YJfMV3D_GWKVTOZldIlVCK8tT0LA7yXSnui0SddGIRy/s320/t0vbL1tlRSxswUiX4AhjxrM1sOKKIaUggB6IRoAeiEY.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />文/康德<br /><br />选自康德在1784年在《柏林月刊》上发表的《什么是启蒙?》<br /><br />什么是启蒙? <br /><br />启蒙是人脱离自己招致的不成熟状态。所谓不成熟,是指人在无他人指导时便无法运用自己的理智。而这种不成熟,其根源不在缺乏理智,而在于无他人指引便缺乏决心和勇气来运用自身的理智。 因此启蒙的箴言便是:勇敢地运用你自己的理智(Sapere aude!) 大自然早已把人类从外界的引导下释放出来,然而仍有大量的人愿意终身处于不成熟的状态,以至于别人如此轻而易举就以他们的保护人自居。为什么会这样呢?因为处于不成熟的状态更加安逸。 比如,一本书可以代替我们的知性,一位牧师可以代替我们的良心,一位医生能够替我们安排膳食......我无需自己操心,无需去思想,就已经有人替我将这些事情办妥。既然如此,我又何必去做这些伤脑筋的事? 绝大部分的人把步入成熟状态看作一件非常艰辛、非常危险的事。这一点早就被那些好心的保护人关注到了。 他们先是使家中饲养的小羊羔蠢笨,并小心翼翼地防着不让他们摆脱学步车的牵引而迈出一步,当他们尝试独自行走时,再告之以危险并使之感到威胁。<br /><br />这种危险实际上并不是那么大,人类在跌过几次跤之后总能学会走路。只不过曾经摔跤的例子会让他们畏怯,吓得他们不敢再做出任何尝试。<br /><br /> 任何一个人要从不成熟的状态中奋斗出来,都非常艰难,因为那几乎已经成为他们天性的一部分。保护者不允许他们走出,他们自己也爱上了不成熟的感觉。 抛弃不成熟状态后,人哪怕面对一个最浅的水沟也会畏畏缩缩不敢跳过,因为他们已经不习惯于自由的行动。因此,真正通过自己精神的奋斗摆脱不成熟的状态,并且迈出切实步伐来的,真的只有极少数人。<br /><br />即便如此,人类自己实现整体启蒙的机会很大。只要他们得到自由,启蒙就不可避免。即使以保护者自居的人当中也会存在几个独立思考者,他们在摆脱了不成熟的羁绊之后,将会理性认识人类自身的价值和每个人独立思考的光荣使命,并将这种精神传布开来。 但是,启蒙必须渐进完成。通过一场革命或许可以推翻个人专制以及贪婪心和权势欲的压迫,但却绝不能实现思想方式的真正改革。新的偏见在取代旧的偏见之后,仍将禁锢着没有思考能力的大众。<br /><br />何以启蒙? <br /><br />启蒙无需他物,只要自由。而且是最纯真的那一种“自由”:即在所有事务中公开运用个人理性的自由。 但是,我听到各方面都在叫嚷:“不要争辩!”军官说:“不要争辩!去操练!”税吏说:“不要争辩!去纳税!”牧师说:“不要争辩,去信仰!” 我们发现每个地方都有对自由的限制。但是哪些限制会妨碍启蒙,以及哪些反而能对启蒙有促进作用呢? <br /><br />我的回答是:人必须在任何时候都有公开运用自己理性的自由,只此一点便可将启蒙带给人类。<br />我所理解的对自身理性的公开运用,指的是任何人作为学者,在面对所有听众时能做的那种运用。一个人在其公职岗位或者职务上所运用的理性,我称之为私下的运用。<br /><br />公民不能拒绝缴纳规定的税额,如果他对赋税擅行责难,公权力甚至可以当作诽谤而加以惩处。然而当同一个人作为学者公开发表见解,抗议税收的不当,他的行动并没有违背公民的义务。<br /> 同样地,一个牧师也有义务按照他所服务的那个教会的教义,向班上的学生和他的会众们作报告,因为他是根据这一条件才被委任的。但是作为一个学者,他有充分的自由、甚至有责任,将他深思熟虑后的建议传达给公众:关于教义的缺点、全部善意的意见,以及如何更好地组织宗教团体和教会团体。 那么,一个神职人员,包括德高望重的教会长老,是否有权通过宣示效忠于某条不可更改的教义,从而获得对其所有成员,进而对其民众的永久性监护资格呢?要我说,这是不可能的。<br /><br />达成这种阻止人类进一步启蒙的协议,即使得到了最高权力、帝国议会以及最庄严的条约的确认,也只能是无效的。因为,它是对人性的犯罪。 追求进步是人性的天职。任何时代的人,都没有义务和权力划定一个界限,让后世的人们无法去扩大认知(尤其是十分迫切的认知)、清除错误,以至于无法在启蒙中继续进步。<br /><br />我们生活在一个启蒙的时代<br /><br />一个人可出于自身的原因,在一个有限的时间内对其应该知道的某些事物推迟自身的启蒙。但是完全放弃启蒙,无论是为自己还是为后代,则意味着将人类的这一神圣权利践踏在脚下。 如果有某样东西民众甚至自己都不会施加于自身,那么其君主就更不应该将它施加于民众身上,因为他的立法权威完全取决于他是否能够将其民众的集体意志团结起来。 如果现在有人问,我们是否生活在已经启蒙了的时代,我的回答是:不,但我们生活在一个启蒙的时代中。<br /><br />没有了外部的指导,人类整体是否能自信和正确地公开运用自身的理性?从目前的情况来看,他们离这个目标尚有很长一段路要走。但是我们也看到显著的迹象表明他们已经清理出一条道路,得以自由地朝这个方向努力了,此外那些阻止人类达到普遍启蒙和从不成熟状态解脱出来的障碍,也正逐渐变得越来越少。 人类对自由思想的渴望,是一颗被大自然精心照料的种子。它一旦破土而出,就会逐渐改变人们的观念,让他们越来越能够自由地行事。最终,它甚至会影响到政府的执政方式,在此之下,人会具有人的尊严,而不是任何组织的机器。 <br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-18101579453024772882024-03-25T12:03:00.018+08:002024-03-25T12:03:00.186+08:00近四年对外援助超6万亿, 我国主动宣布77个国家暂停偿还债务<p>2022-07-15<br /><br />这77个国家都有哪些国家?共计金额多少个亿?官方都没有公布。 中国积极参与并落实二十国集团...<br /><br />近四年对外援助超6万亿, 我国主动宣布77个国家暂停偿还债务<br /><br />央视网消息:中国积极参与并落实二十国集团缓债倡议,已宣布77个有关发展中国家暂停债务偿还。<br /><br />这77个国家都有哪些国家?共计金额多少个亿?官方都没有公布。<br /><br />以下是全文:<br /><br />中国积极参与并落实二十国集团缓债倡议,已宣布77个有关发展中国家暂停债务偿还。在向50多个非洲国家和非盟交付医疗援助物资、派出7个医疗专家组的基础上,中国将进一步加大援非抗疫力度,继续向非洲国家提供力所能及的支持,援助急需医疗物资,开展医疗技术合作,派遣更多医疗专家组和工作组,帮助非洲国家提升疫情防控能力和水平。中国将向联合国人道应对计划提供支持。<br /><br />我们梳理了一些数据。惊奇发现两点:<br /><br />1、近10年来,中国对外援助金额已经远超美国,成为对外援助超级大国。<br /><br />2、颠覆了一个认识。近四年来,我国对外援助主要不在非洲。而在俄罗斯。俄罗斯一国拿到我国的援助是整个非洲的6倍。<br /><br />那么,我们到底对外有多少援助呢?<br /><br />我们可以自行寻找一下,有一个网站,名字叫“AidData”,是美国威廉玛丽学院开发的一个对外援助数据项目,网站罗列了世界各国多年来对外援助的数据,当然也包括中国。<br /><br />根据该数据库资料,从2000年到2014年的15年间,中国向140个国家提供了经济援助和贷款,累计金额高达3620亿美元,约2.45万亿元人民币(按照当前汇率计算)。同时期,美国的海外援助总计3990亿美元,相差不到400亿美元。<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5WTK3Y_tSXxOiu1PoWYsqx-HB4s2TNF7F9_xeyC-2-D8jPUWpCY-LPB4ugnpdjYxd7P0SjSSoKKxqLA0OdBcHWhnbottUoTZKFd1S6Eh2UtcR9M6pwhAawA3dz3CG7MdWW251VPDO0HAd8U2gF4irqf0pdEAD4yvscIqUDI8KlHRlgstCzKTstXw7BKvW/s882/0080Vynely4h47fijl6m5j30oi0hyn4z.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="882" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5WTK3Y_tSXxOiu1PoWYsqx-HB4s2TNF7F9_xeyC-2-D8jPUWpCY-LPB4ugnpdjYxd7P0SjSSoKKxqLA0OdBcHWhnbottUoTZKFd1S6Eh2UtcR9M6pwhAawA3dz3CG7MdWW251VPDO0HAd8U2gF4irqf0pdEAD4yvscIqUDI8KlHRlgstCzKTstXw7BKvW/s320/0080Vynely4h47fijl6m5j30oi0hyn4z.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>从图表可以看出,从2011年开始,中国对外援助金额就开始超过美国,之前还有一个特殊年份:2009年中国对外援助金额几乎是美国的两倍。<br /><br />从增长的角度看,15年来,中国对外援助从2000年几乎为零增长到数百亿美元。<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgULj0so2VAGQADc5-dbHNMpYLhgj1fslCzEwvbsrbDKUYGnu36J5KpHBhXUjM9kAe-lp-IxqBxaC9SozEHrfDMUJvzwPFsGVUaZ4PYVVnQ78G9wb4gbfHbph8YJi2TMWa7lbodQq9iNxzbKYcZZdX8nL53ga-kzD7SIi_7sIVNptpTrqLh6rPW3YlFJOFQ/s777/0080Vynely4h47fij24grj30ll0cdgt3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="777" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgULj0so2VAGQADc5-dbHNMpYLhgj1fslCzEwvbsrbDKUYGnu36J5KpHBhXUjM9kAe-lp-IxqBxaC9SozEHrfDMUJvzwPFsGVUaZ4PYVVnQ78G9wb4gbfHbph8YJi2TMWa7lbodQq9iNxzbKYcZZdX8nL53ga-kzD7SIi_7sIVNptpTrqLh6rPW3YlFJOFQ/s320/0080Vynely4h47fij24grj30ll0cdgt3.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>另一份来自环球网的数据,近四年,中国合计对外援助达到60365亿元人民币。<br /><br />如果平均分配给国内3000家上市公司,每家可获得20亿元人民币。<br /><br />如果贷给国内小微企业,可以彻底解决全部1000万户小微企业的融资难问题,平均每户60万元人民币。<br /><br />如果用于“三农”,可以一次性实现全部一亿农民的小康目标,平均每户6万元人民币。<br /><br />如果平均分配给每个中国人,每人4378.28元人民币。<br /><br />但是与美国的对外援助相比,中国对外援助支出的21%属于传统的无偿经济援助,其余是贷款。而美国对外援助的93%是用于经济发展和福利。<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWzbapB_iLmed7NRUw2XTzK8GkjYGeCSMCORuRuPdOd60yJa3B3STKVyx7Urcf5wy7XdfI7wPbxi53w5dhAHJ1FLW5WQn9Ztf883AUQjpoxyt9ABDg7sNbbsl8BPdsKrl1kjN34-q4cuE-GgEPmf-mnXfTR7rVuEGVr-yjOFFPUGb85OdiFXiKtwLAoWp3/s639/0080Vynely4h47fijb1wsj30hr0bb0zr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="407" data-original-width="639" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWzbapB_iLmed7NRUw2XTzK8GkjYGeCSMCORuRuPdOd60yJa3B3STKVyx7Urcf5wy7XdfI7wPbxi53w5dhAHJ1FLW5WQn9Ztf883AUQjpoxyt9ABDg7sNbbsl8BPdsKrl1kjN34-q4cuE-GgEPmf-mnXfTR7rVuEGVr-yjOFFPUGb85OdiFXiKtwLAoWp3/s320/0080Vynely4h47fijb1wsj30hr0bb0zr.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>那么,哪些国家拿到了中国的援助款呢?<br /><br />根据《环球时报》的数据,近四年中,对俄罗斯援助款是4000亿美元,委内瑞拉650亿美元,印尼500亿美元,拉丁美洲1180亿美元,巴西100亿美元,厄瓜多尔120亿美元,非洲600亿美元,安哥拉74亿美元,中东国家550亿美元。<br /><br />从2000年开始的15年间,中国共向51个非洲国家提供了1666个官方援助项目,其中,有1110个被定义为官方发展援助项目,作为促进发展中国家经济发展和福利的官方资助项目。<br /><br />另一个重要援助对象是位于中国东边的半岛国家北朝鲜,但是由于援助数据不公开,可跟踪的援助款仅为2.1亿美元。<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-50620499107705096602024-03-25T11:51:00.001+08:002024-03-25T11:51:00.142+08:00为什么中国南宋就有了活字印刷,明清还要抄书呢?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidtWix5mx46Vl3YYsNNBBQbBLU6KrUP_SZYF4ddC0MKzFTn39eN-agcIcgZ3SGKj_Uw67fH-jFVSl7Xf0kBS971cXvMlrZtqPaMQl5tGqML-qP8IZ2oS4d_p2NHKDP_6kAj6PNjwvYDijM-FoQwDHHmuSOaQ18aoT-Cs01erYazYU5RIqU6e-3lmpJNXft/s300/efcfa359.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidtWix5mx46Vl3YYsNNBBQbBLU6KrUP_SZYF4ddC0MKzFTn39eN-agcIcgZ3SGKj_Uw67fH-jFVSl7Xf0kBS971cXvMlrZtqPaMQl5tGqML-qP8IZ2oS4d_p2NHKDP_6kAj6PNjwvYDijM-FoQwDHHmuSOaQ18aoT-Cs01erYazYU5RIqU6e-3lmpJNXft/s1600/efcfa359.jpg" width="300" /></a></div><br />@书肆巡阅使<br /><br />【为什么中国南宋就有了活字印刷,明清还要抄书呢?】<br /><br />01<br /><br />一个反常识的结论是:活字印刷术并不好用。<br /><br />正如中学课本上所说活字印刷术有很多优点,比如可以重复使用、泥活字和铜活字耐久性比木制雕版印刷要高、占用空间小等等等等优点。<br /><br />但这些优点相对雕版印刷术来说,都算不上绝对性优势。<br /><br />而雕版印刷术相比活字印刷术,反而有一个决定性的优势——那就是刻版的工匠可以完全不识字。<br /><br />02<br /><br />可能很多人不太清楚活字印刷术的一个操作流程。<br /><br />按照王桢《农书》中的相关文献记载,在活字烧制完成后,排版时需要一人唱版(把字读出来),一人拣字(把对应活字挑出来),一人排版。<br /><br />到这里,你就会发现一个问题,这一整个操作流程,需要三个人都识字。<br /><br />但凡有一个人不识字,整个流程都没办法进行。<br /><br />而古代的识字率可是很低的。<br /><br />有学者考究过雕版印刷品,发现很多雕版印刷品中会出现一些仅此一例的异体字,比如字上多一横,少一横,多一撇少一撇。<br /><br />其中有一些或许是母本原来的笔误,但更大的可能是因为刻版的工匠不识字,在雕刻的时候照猫画虎,刻错了版。(这是很有可能的,因为在明代嘉靖仿宋体,也就是枯柴体出现之前,印刷品是没有统一字体的)<br /><br />这也很符合中国古代识字率低的史实。<br /><br />所以一直到明清,中国印刷业依然是以雕版印刷为主,活字印刷术并没有大规模流行开来。<br /><br />03<br /><br />再其次,《梦溪笔谈》的作者沈括,曾经很精准的描述了活字印刷术的另一个特点。<br /><br />若止印三二本,未为简易;若印数十百千本,则极为神速。<br /><br />也就是说活字印刷术必须要大规模印刷,才能体现出优势,如果我只需要一两本,那我为什么不直接手抄呢?<br /><br />所以,活字印刷术和抄书这两件事并存,一点也不奇怪~<br /><br />————————<br />冯.若衣卖 汉周读书 <br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-63263476593487109682024-03-24T18:24:00.003+08:002024-03-24T18:24:00.148+08:00只要喜欢什么时候都不晚<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4gdvx0"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4gdvx0","div":"rumble_v4gdvx0"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-26707789101131987932024-03-24T17:21:00.004+08:002024-03-24T17:30:43.307+08:00评论区纷纷教金灿荣做事:怎么不可能是美国干的?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK5m-z1nqNZ9kh8D7MbnAA343QmzmlqEZp49mWU3E5jwOkVr1f4KKAcsFuBNjWHBwfTmKXUK4tFNPwXxNOg8V78kqe0zstTc0t4ezLbrGgAHIHQXqyScratzQ1tfHr04hHP0bFo9DjWU3zS29qwzVHInXHNoY1Kl6dRzgKpiAlETxyuaLYugGGXVDVhCes/s3556/500b05c7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3556" data-original-width="521" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK5m-z1nqNZ9kh8D7MbnAA343QmzmlqEZp49mWU3E5jwOkVr1f4KKAcsFuBNjWHBwfTmKXUK4tFNPwXxNOg8V78kqe0zstTc0t4ezLbrGgAHIHQXqyScratzQ1tfHr04hHP0bFo9DjWU3zS29qwzVHInXHNoY1Kl6dRzgKpiAlETxyuaLYugGGXVDVhCes/s320/500b05c7.jpg" width="47" /></a></div><p>==中国军事专家分析:美国没有直接参与,但原因还在于美国==</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO9hYDE1sGwpsJTD2RLDk_Xxd___GNH4zicq09V9Ubd46tDyux4DqHtI0CUzlckFHPsSJlvR6UZ0pGS_wRgXY_YVXUKh7dwxTWZDjQsyRIx1xs3y8comQEVIJTbapJ19zWSCVLh6f-ew5di9aHcxhxdV6twQ5TnhBNrwKFRudobOkhQibvOqyewBJxrzQS/s800/500b05c7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="362" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO9hYDE1sGwpsJTD2RLDk_Xxd___GNH4zicq09V9Ubd46tDyux4DqHtI0CUzlckFHPsSJlvR6UZ0pGS_wRgXY_YVXUKh7dwxTWZDjQsyRIx1xs3y8comQEVIJTbapJ19zWSCVLh6f-ew5di9aHcxhxdV6twQ5TnhBNrwKFRudobOkhQibvOqyewBJxrzQS/s320/500b05c7.jpg" width="145" /></a></div> <p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-43703194710999321242024-03-24T17:17:00.002+08:002024-03-24T17:17:10.096+08:00现实版红掌拨清波<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4il7ow"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4il7ow","div":"rumble_v4il7ow"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-47894455166521042382024-03-24T12:26:00.000+08:002024-03-24T12:26:00.134+08:00Dune: Part Two/沙丘2<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV2kzHN7ZA_fWSpiWOyarfYmd61YnxzsasjP-Grf1qdHZubeUxkoB2xIE01TDRYF8tkmcfwO3BSI7Ir7v5mp_2_ZVDBp24MdPfu7msjGGW2D4xsPPEtEKeqnYzPbx5b0aeR9tvkD0qWX2tHh7r9pQTQelPs4-EEZAcKYOsTq4gCqAbU5VFKOzLnqFWkm66/s1575/p2903704759.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1575" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV2kzHN7ZA_fWSpiWOyarfYmd61YnxzsasjP-Grf1qdHZubeUxkoB2xIE01TDRYF8tkmcfwO3BSI7Ir7v5mp_2_ZVDBp24MdPfu7msjGGW2D4xsPPEtEKeqnYzPbx5b0aeR9tvkD0qWX2tHh7r9pQTQelPs4-EEZAcKYOsTq4gCqAbU5VFKOzLnqFWkm66/s320/p2903704759.webp" width="219" /></a></div><br />This is the sequel of "<a href="https://cinacn.blogspot.com/2021/10/dune.html" target="_blank">Dune</a>", the part two of the well-known series. This is a movie you must watch in theaters.<br /><br />Performance impression:<br />Director: Denis Villeneuve<br />Stars: Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson<br /><br /><p></p><span class="imdbRatingPlugin" data-style="p1" data-title="tt15239678" data-user="ur24823090"><a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15239678/?ref_=plg_rt_1"><img alt="Dune: Part Two (2024) on IMDb" src="https://ia.media-imdb.com/images/G/01/imdb/plugins/rating/images/imdb_46x22.png" />
</a></span><script>(function(d,s,id){var js,stags=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(d.getElementById(id)){return;}js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="https://ia.media-imdb.com/images/G/01/imdb/plugins/rating/js/rating.js";stags.parentNode.insertBefore(js,stags);})(document,"script","imdb-rating-api");</script>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-27895426023011480892024-03-24T12:08:00.008+08:002024-03-24T12:08:00.454+08:00OpenAI 奥特曼:回答关切的GPT-5、Sora、董事会闹剧、马斯克等问题<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4hjadl"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4hjadl","div":"rumble_v4hjadl"});</script><br /><p></p><p>OpenAI 奥特曼:回答关切的GPT-5、Sora、董事会闹剧、马斯克等 首个AGI系统能够回答关于宇宙统一理论和外星文明存在性等重大科学问题。<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093791520746240673.post-27874480559084701092024-03-23T12:46:00.003+08:002024-03-23T12:46:00.209+08:00用英语打麻将是什么体验<p style="text-align: center;"><script>!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/uwbxb2"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");</script>
</p><div id="rumble_v4gk15i"></div>
<script>
Rumble("play", {"video":"v4gk15i","div":"rumble_v4gk15i"});</script><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0