2007年6月13日星期三

常见逻辑谬误:anecdotal/轶事证据

anecdotal

You used a personal experience or an isolated example instead of a sound argument or compelling evidence.

It's often much easier for people to believe someone's testimony as opposed to understanding complex data and variation across a continuum. Quantitative scientific measures are almost always more accurate than personal perceptions and experiences, but our inclination is to believe that which is tangible to us, and/or the word of someone we trust over a more 'abstract' statistical reality.

Example: Jason said that that was all cool and everything, but his grandfather smoked, like, 30 cigarettes a day and lived until 97 - so don't believe everything you read about meta analyses of methodologically sound studies showing proven causal relationships.

你试图用个人经验或者单独事例来取代逻辑论述或者有力的证据。
比起复杂而确凿的证据来说,轶事证据更容易获得,但是却要粗浅很多。在绝大多数情况下,量化衡量的科学数据/确凿证据比个人经验/轶事要更加可信。

例子:小红爷爷是个30年的老烟枪,现在80多岁身体还很健康,小红以此得出吸烟对身体无害的结论。小红犯了轶事证据的谬误。

常见24条逻辑谬误

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