2007年6月14日星期四

常见逻辑谬误:the texas sharpshooter/德克萨斯神枪手

the texas sharpshooter

You cherry-picked a data cluster to suit your argument, or found a pattern to fit a presumption.
This 'false cause' fallacy is coined after a marksman shooting randomly at barns and then painting bullseye targets around the spot where the most bullet holes appear, making it appear as if he's a really good shot. Clusters naturally appear by chance, but don't necessarily indicate that there is a causal relationship.

Example: The makers of Sugarette Candy Drinks point to research showing that of the five countries where Sugarette drinks sell the most units, three of them are in the top ten healthiest countries on Earth, therefore Sugarette drinks are healthy.

你在大量的数据/证据中小心的挑选出对自己的观点有利的证据,而不使用那些对自己不利的数据/证据。
你先开了一枪,然后在子弹击中的地方画上靶心,搞得自己真是个神枪手一样。你先决定了自己的立场,然后才开始找证据,并且你只找对自己有利的,而对于那些对自己不利的就选择性忽略。

例子:红X字会为了证明自己尽到了职责,到处宣传自己拨出了XXXX的善款,却只字不提自己公款消费的奢侈无度。红X字会犯了“德克萨斯神枪手”谬误

常见24条逻辑谬误

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