by ELM
Chinese version
【1】
The likelihood of the CCP launching an armed invasion of Taiwan during the current Trump administration is extremely low, or actually ZERO.
The reason for bringing up this topic is that some web users mentioned that Lai Ching-te proposed 17 countermeasures (known as "Lai's 17 points"), including reinstating military court trials for Taiwanese soldiers accused of espionage and other security offenses, more closely monitoring Taiwanese connections with China to prevent Beijing from using religious, educational, and cultural exchanges for political interference, and demanding more disclosure of information about Taiwanese politicians visiting China. This is a direct challenge to Xi Jinping, greatly irritating the CCP and significantly increasing the probability of mainland China using military force to unify Taiwan.
Moreover, there have been rumors that 2027, marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is the deadline for Xi Jinping to resolve the Taiwan issue completely—how? Of course, by militarily unifying Taiwan.
【2】
The geographical, diplomatic, and technical difficulties have been discussed in previous posts and will not be repeated here. I will only mention one point:
If the PLA initiates conflict, no one can guarantee that the guns will be aimed only at the Taiwan Strait and not at Zhongnanhai.
For Xi Jinping, the supreme commander of the PLA, which is more important, the Taiwan Strait or Zhongnanhai? There is no need to hesitate.
As the "largest military power in East Asia," why would Xi Jinping still be so worried about the possible potential "opposers in the army"? It's simple: there have been recent revelations that Xi Jinping's right-hand man in the military, Miao Hua/苗华, has been confirmed to have fallen from grace; He Weidong/何卫东 is rumored to be in trouble, and the CCP has yet to refute these rumors. Additionally, a few days ago, it was reported that Lin Xiangyang/林向阳, another of Xi's trusted aides, was arrested.
Miao Hua, He Weidong, and Lin Xiangyang are all from Xi Jinping's 31st Army. If they are indeed in trouble, it symbolizes ongoing internal strife within the PLA, with fierce power struggles between different factions. Not only is there internal conflict within the military, but He Weidong and Lin Xiangyang are also crucial because they are responsible for operations against Taiwan and are involved in planning such operations.
Since the 20th National Congress, there has been a noticeable increase in personnel changes within Xi Jinping's administration, especially within the military. Since 2023, at least a dozen senior military officers and defense industry leaders have been removed. Both defense ministers personally promoted by Xi (Li Shangfu/李尚福 and Wei Fenghe/魏凤和) and three commanders (former Air Force Commander Ding Laihang/丁来杭, former Rocket Force Commanders Li Yuchao/李玉超 and Zhou Yaning/周亚宁) have been ousted.
The above is a relatively recent "old chart," and now, even He Weidong, who was not marked on the chart, has gone missing.
On November 28, 2024, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense announced that Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department, was suspended for investigation due to suspected serious violations of discipline. The current Defense Minister, Dong Jun/董军, is also rumored to be in a precarious position. Since taking over from the disgraced former Defense Minister Li Shangfu last December, he has not been appointed to the Central Military Commission or as a State Councilor, making such doubts quite normal. During the Two Sessions in March 2025, Dong Jun appeared at the meetings of the military and armed police delegations on March 7 and March 9 but was conspicuously absent from the full session of the State Council, with the reasons remaining undisclosed.
Dong Jun, The current Minister of Defense, Dong Jun
It's not just the high-ranking officers at the front who have been disappearing from public view due to "corruption" issues; the rear, which provides technical support through military equipment and logistics, is also rife with problems. At the beginning of this year, Tan Ruisong/谭瑞松, the former Party Secretary and Chairman of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), was removed from his position due to serious job-related violations and suspected crimes of embezzlement and bribery. AVIC is a major defense contractor and aircraft manufacturer, also listed in the Fortune Global 500. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) accused him of misappropriating huge amounts of public property, "relying on the military industry to feed off the military industry."
Whether the purge conducted under the guise of anti-corruption is Xi Jinping's own political maneuvering or a power struggle between different factions within the military, the key issue is that the internal purge within the PLA shows no signs of stopping. Instead of stopping, it has spread from combat and procurement departments to political work departments. Until the purge subsides, the possibility of an armed invasion of Taiwan remains extremely low.
Looking at the broader picture, even the PLA's own newspaper, the "Liberation Army Daily," has published articles pointing out: ["Those who are united in purpose will triumph," is one of the five principles of victory in Sun Tzu's Art of War, a viewpoint that has been highly endorsed by countless politicians and military leaders over thousands of years. Zhang Yu's commentary on Sun Tzu states: "When a hundred generals are of one heart, and the three armies exert their strength together, and everyone desires to fight, then they will be unstoppable." Cai E/蔡锷 once said: "The army can be used effectively only when everyone is united in purpose."] — But what if they are not united in purpose? Unifying Taiwan by force would certainly bring glory to Xi Jinping, but what about the other factions? If your strength is my weakness, why should I follow you in a military unification? What if, after unifying Taiwan, you discard me like a used tool? If your power grows, you might turn around and deal with me next.
Looking at more recent events, the Soviet Union, still recovering from its great purge of the military, hastily launched the "Winter War" to invade Finland and suffered significant losses before barely forcing Finland to sign a peace treaty. But that was a war between two countries with over a thousand kilometers of land border, where both surprise attacks and human wave tactics could be employed. The situation across the Taiwan Strait is not comparable.
So, returning to the previous topic: the internal purge within the PLA and Xi Jinping's concerns about his own power form a vicious cycle of mutual feedback. The more Xi purges, the more he worries about his own power; and the more he worries about his own power, the more he conducts purges. The power struggles between different factions within the PLA will continue to be intense. With internal strife ongoing, where would the energy and preparation come from for an external invasion?
【3】
However, this does not mean that Taiwan can afford to let its guard down. On the contrary, in the face of the PLA's frequent threats of military unification, strengthening the military and preparing for war are necessary means to defend democracy and freedom.
After all, Mao Zedong, the first-generation core leader of the PLA, once said: "Strategically despise the enemy, but tactically take the enemy seriously."
